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PV Magazine
Indonesia’s cumulative solar capacity is forecast to reach 23.2 GW by 2035, according to figures published by London-based data analytics and consulting company GlobalData.
The consultancy’s latest report expects Indonesia to surpass 1 GW of installed solar by the end of this year, hitting 1.5 GW. While solar currently sits as the third largest energy source in Indonesia’s renewable power market, behind geothermal and biopower sources, it is forecast to become the largest renewable energy source by 2028, when it is projected to reach 4.7 GW.
By the end of the decade, cumulative solar capacity is expected to hit 9.1 GW. This growth trajectory will continue to accelerate through the early 2030s, surpassing 20 GW in 2034, ahead of reaching 23.2 GW in 2035.
GlobalData says Indonesia’s surge in solar installations over the next ten years will be driven by the expansion of floating and utility-scale projects, as well as rooftop solar programs that are supported by feed-in mechanisms and updated net-metering regulations.
Indonesia’s total renewable power capacity is projected to reach 38.1 GW by 2035, up from 8.4 GW in 2024, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate of 14.7% between 2024 to 2035.
Mohammed Ziauddin, power analyst at GlobalData, explained that Indonesia’s renewables expansion is being catalyzed by frameworks including the Just Energy Transition Partnership, which targets 44% renewable electricity by 2030, alongside fiscal and investment incentives.
Despite the strong renewables growth forecast, Indonesia’s power system is expected to remain heavily reliant on thermal sources through to 2035. Coal-fire capacity is expected to rise from 55.6 GW in 2024 to 61.4 GW in 2035, supported by existing contracts and state-owned infrastructure. Similarly, gas-fired capacity is set to increase from 29.1 GW in 2024 to 36 GW in 2035, in order to provide flexibility and backup for renewables.
With Indonesia still reliant on isolated island grids, Ziauddin added that the country will require focus on expanding cross-island transmission and deploying digital grid systems to support the scaling of renewables.
“Indonesia’s power system is entering a dual-track phase of expansion, scaling renewables while retaining thermal stability,” he concluded. “With solar PV and wind onshore leading growth, supported by geothermal development and grid modernization, the country is progressively building a more diversified and secure energy mix through 2035 and beyond.”
Indonesia’s National Energy Policy is aiming to reach up to 108.7 GW of solar capacity by 2060. Earlier this year, the Indonesian government launched an initiative to deploy 100 GW of solar, consisting of plans for 80 GW of 1 MW solar minigrids with storage, alongside 20 GW of centralized solar power plants.
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