oil-gas
Apr 15, 2025
Arabian Gulf Business Insight
The International Energy Agency (IEA) slashed its 2025 oil demand growth forecast on Tuesday, citing rising trade tensions and a weakening global economy. The forecast widens the gap with Opec’s more upbeat outlook.
The Paris-based watchdog now expects demand to grow by just 730,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from 1 million bpd previously forecast. Growth is projected to ease further to 690,000 bpd in 2026, the IEA said in its monthly report.
“Escalating trade tensions have negatively impacted the economic outlook,” the IEA said. “After a period of relative calm, global oil markets were roiled by a barrage of trade tariff announcements in early April.”
US President Donald Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs – energy products are excluded – has triggered market jitters, particularly with levies on Chinese goods rising to 145 percent.
The IEA said that the resulting economic drag, coupled with surprise output hikes from Opec+ producers, has fuelled a “downward spiral in oil prices”.
Eight Opec+ members accelerated the unwinding of voluntary cuts, adding 411,000 bpd in May – three times the previously scheduled increase – further pressuring prices.
Oil crude fell to a four-year low earlier this month. It has since rebounded, as Trump granted a 90-day reprieve on some tariffs.
Brent traded at $64.84 a barrel on Tuesday, while WTI stood at $61.50. Concerns that the measures could stoke inflation, slow economic growth and intensify trade disputes weigh on oil prices.
The IEA’s downgrade puts it far below Opec’s forecast of 1.3 million bpd growth in 2025.
Analysts at S&P Global and others have also trimmed forecasts to about 700,000 bpd.
“Oil markets are in for a bumpy ride and considerable uncertainties hang over our forecasts,” the IEA said.
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Pipeline Gas Journal
Intensity Launches Open Season For 208-Mile Bakken Gas Pipeline Expansion(P&GJ) — Intensity Infrastructure Partners LLC has launched an open season for the Phase II Extension of its proposed Intensity Pipeline project, following positive feedback from stakeholders during its initial open season earlier this year.
The extension includes construction of 208 miles of 30-inch natural gas transmission pipeline, mainline compression, and interconnection facilities to expand the pipeline’s reach across eastern North Dakota. It will connect with the planned Phase I pipeline in southern McLean County and extend to Casselton, North Dakota. The expected in-service date is January 1, 2030.
When complete, Phases I and II will make up a 344-mile system of 36-inch and 30-inch pipe with an initial capacity of approximately 1.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), expandable to 1.5 Bcf/d with added compression. Final project design will be shaped by customer demand during this second open season.
Intensity said the decision to launch the second open season, which will run from April 17 through May 23, 2025, was driven by “significant interest and support from community leaders, government agencies and potential customers.”
During the open season, interested parties can submit a Service Interest Form specifying their desired transport capacity, contract term, rate, and preferred receipt and delivery points.
Customers can contact Matthew Griffin at mgriffin@intensityinfra.com for bidding details, while other stakeholders are invited to reach out to Mike Higgins at mhiggins@intensityinfra.com.oil-gas
18 April 2025
Arabian Gulf Business Insight
Saudi Arabia And Uae To Cut Oil Output In Opec’S Latest PlanOpec has received updated plans for seven countries including Saudi Arabia and the UAE to make further oil output cuts to compensate for pumping above agreed quotas, the group said on Wednesday.
Opec+, which includes Opec plus Russia and other allies, has implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022. Its compensation plan is designed to ensure that members who do not make the cuts in full implement further reductions.
The latest plan requires seven nations to cut output by a further 369,000 barrels per day (bpd) in monthly steps between now and June 2026, compared with an earlier plan running from March until next June, according to Reuters calculations.
Under the latest plan, monthly cuts will range from 196,000 bpd to 520,000 bpd from this month until June 2026, up from between 189,000 bpd and 435,000 bpd previously.
Should the latest cuts be made in full, the compensation plan would to a large extent offset a planned 411,000 bpd output increase being made by other members of Opec+ in May, providing additional support for the oil market.
The seven members making the cuts are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan and Oman. Algeria has no required cut.
Opec+ has repeatedly revised the plan after countries did not make the cuts as pledged.
Iraq, the group’s largest overproducer, plans to step up efforts to deliver on its compensation cuts. A source said its crude allocations to customers for May cargoes are much lower.
“We need more reduction to meet the compensation plan,” the source said.
Iraq needs to compensate for a total of 1.93 million bpd of overproduction by June 2026. Kazakhstan needs to make the second-largest cut of 1.3 million bpd in the same timeframe.
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17 April 2025
Arabian Gulf Business Insight
Turkey’S Largest Refiner Buys Russian Oil After Price DropTurkey’s largest oil refiner Tupras has returned to buying Russian Urals crude cargoes, after it stopped doing so earlier this year due to stronger US sanctions on Moscow, according to three trading sources and shipping data.
Tupras did not immediately reply to a Reuters request for comment.
The three sources said Tupras resumed its purchases after prices for Urals crude fell to its lowest levels since 2023, earlier this month, dropping comfortably below a G7 price cap level of $60 a barrel.
The price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries, the European Union and Australia bans the use of Western maritime services such as insurance, flagging and transportation when tankers carry Russian oil priced at or above $60 a barrel.
Since October the US treasury department has imposed sanctions on multiple tankers suspected of breaching the price cap.
Tupras became one of the biggest importers of Russian crude after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with Russian oil representing 65 percent of the country’s total oil imports in January-November 2024, according to data from Turkey’s energy regulator.
The company halted purchases of Russian crude in February because of mounting concerns around US sanctions following the extensive package announced on January 10.
Tupras will receive at least two cargoes of Urals for April loading, trading sources with knowledge of the matter said.
One of the cargoes is already on the water. The Nissos Christiana loaded around 730,000 barrels of Russian Urals crude from the Baltic port of Ust-Luga on April 3, data from Kpler showed.
It is due for delivery to Izmit on April 21, where Tupras operates a 225,800-barrel-per-day capacity oil refinery.
It was not immediately clear if any other vessel had been fixed for Tupras’s additional cargo purchase.
Tupras is the largest refiner in Turkey with two refineries at Izmit and Izmir, which have a combined crude processing capacity of 467,300 bpd, according to LSEG data.
When it halted Russian purchases, Tupras turned to alternative crude grades, including making its first purchase of Brazilian oil last month.
Other sources of Tupras’s March-April crude imports include Guyana, Nigeria, Libya and Norway, according to Kpler data.
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17 April 2025
World Oil
Liberty Energy Sees U.S. Oil Activity Holding Firm With Prices Above $60(Bloomberg) – Liberty Energy Inc., one of the biggest U.S. fracing companies, expects most producers to stick with their production plans as long as crude prices can hang on near current levels.
“If oil stayed in the low $60s, well, that’s not an exciting environment for us by any stretch of the imagination,” Liberty Chief Executive Officer Ron Gusek said during a call with analysts Thursday. “At most we probably feel modest ripples in activity levels.”
If US oil futures dip into the $50s, however, companies are apt to start dropping drilling rigs, Gusek said. But it was premature, he said, to forecast how much production would slow.
West Texas Intermediate rose 3% Thursday to $64.54 a barrel.
Liberty, formerly run by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, is the first large oil-service company to report earnings since crude prices began plunging in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war and OPEC’s decision to raise a planned production increase later this year. The rout has hammered oil companies’ share prices and threatened to undermine drillers’ plans to modestly increase U.S. production this year.
Denver-based Liberty has been among the hardest-hit companies, with its shares down about 20% since Trump announced the tariffs earlier this month. The stock surged as much as 13% Thursday after the company reported higher-than-expected first-quarter sales.
The company’s crews are currently working to hold production flat, Gusek said. Despite the recent volatility, he doesn’t expect oil and gas companies to make any sudden changes to their drilling plans.
“It’s unlikely that we’re going to have any of our customers remove a pad in the next month or two,” Gusek said. “It’s my expectation that to the extent we do see some changes, that’s going to be back half of the year.”oil-gas
17 April 2025
Energy Capital Power
Nigeria’S Walcot Group Secures 3 Oil Blocks In AngolaNigerian conglomerate Walcot Group has signed a production sharing contract with Angola’s national concessionaire the National Agency for Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels (ANPG) for three onshore oil blocks.
The agreement was formalized on April 7, granting Walcot full operatorship of Blocks CON 3 and CON 7 in the Lower Congo Basin. The blocks hold a combined prospective resource base of over 2 billion barrels of oil.
In addition, the company acquired a 10% stake in Block KON 13, located in the Kwanza Onshore Basin. The Block is operated by Nigerian oil and gas company Oando Energy Resources.
In January 2025, Walcot Group submitted nine proposals for five blocks in the Kwanza Onshore Basin, including KON 1, KON 3, KON 7, KON 10 and KON 14. The selection was based on evaluations of financial and technical capacity, as well as suitability.oil-gas
17 April 2025
Energy Capital Power
Drc Advances Oil Rights For SonahydrocThe Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) Council of Ministers has approved a draft decree that grants state-owned oil company SONAHYDROC the rights to Blocks 1 and 2 in the Albertine Graben.
The decree was introduced on April 11 by Hydrocarbons Minister Aimé Sakombi Molendo during the Council’s 39th meeting. It allows for the direct allocation of the two blocks to SONAHYDROC under a service contract.
Located in eastern DRC, the Albertine Graben is seen as a high-potential zone for oil exploration. By awarding these blocks directly to SONAHYDROC, the government aims to fast-track exploration and production while strengthening national participation in the development of strategic resources.
The decree sets out the legal and fiscal terms for this allocation, ensuring it adheres to the existing regulatory framework. It also reflects the government’s broader strategy of leveraging state-owned enterprises to drive resource development.oil-gas
17 April 2025
Pipeline Gas Journal
Cosan’S Edge Imports Argentine Gas To Brazil Using Bolivian Pipeline(Reuters) — Edge, a firm under Brazilian conglomerate Cosan, has imported Argentine natural gas into Brazil through Bolivia for the first time, said the firm on Wednesday.
The operation took place in partnership with Argentina's Tecpetrol, which produces 25 million cubic meters of gas per day in the country. Neither firm disclosed the volumes involved.
The operation follows the first import of its kind by Brazil, also using Bolivian infrastructure. Earlier this month, TotalEnergies exported gas from Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale formation to Brazil's Matrix Energia.
Both operations took advantage of existing gas pipeline infrastructure between the three countries, raising hopes that Brazil could start to receive increasing volumes from Argentina as the country develops Vaca Muerta.
"There is a huge opportunity, and transport capacity expansions are underway - and being planned - that will allow us to supply all our neighboring countries competitively and safely," Tecpetrol's CEO Ricardo Markous said in a statement, citing Vaca Muerta's potential.
The gas brought from Argentina will form part of Edge's supply portfolio, which operates in gas trading and also with infrastructure and logistics projects in the segment.oil-gas
17 April 2025
Pipeline Gas Journal
Kinder Morgan Holds Profit Outlook As Natural Gas Demand Climbs(Reuters) — U.S. pipeline and terminal operator Kinder Morgan left its annual profit forecast unchanged on Wednesday, as it continued to bank on demand increase for natural gas even as President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs sparked uncertainty across the energy industry.
While Kinder Morgan does not expect tariffs to have a significant impact on project economics, it said the uncertainty sparked by them, along with commodity prices, caused the company to be "a little bit more conservative" in communicating its annual outlook.
It expects to post an adjusted profit of $1.27 per share in 2025.
The energy sector is bracing the impact of Trump's trade policy — which includes tariffs on steel imports — as well as an escalating trade war with China and falling crude prices.
"We began efforts to mitigate the potential impact early in the quarter by preordering critical project components, negotiating caps on cost increases, and securing domestic steel and mill capacity for our larger projects, which total two-thirds of our project backlog," said CEO Kim Dang.
The impact of tariffs is expected to be roughly 1% of the total project costs, she added.
Any loss in demand for U.S. LNG in the Chinese market would be more than offset by increased imports by the European Union and Asia, the company said on a conference call.
The company, which moves roughly 40% of total U.S. natural gas output, also said it continues to have a bullish outlook for natgas demand, banking on LNG export facilities and data centers.
The Houston, Texas-based firm posted an adjusted profit of 34 cents per share in the first quarter, narrowly missing estimates of 35 cents per share, according to data compiled by LSEG. This was led by weaker earnings at its products pipelines segment and an 18.2% rise in total operating costs.oil-gas
17 April 2025
Pipeline Gas Journal
Santos Eyes Early Start For Alaska Oil Project As Revenue Slips(Reuters) — Australian oil and gas producer Santos said on Thursday it could potentially bring forward the startup for its Pikka phase 1 in Alaska, while posting a 7% fall in first-quarter sales revenue due to lower crude sales volumes and realized prices for its LNG products.
Shares of the firm rose as much as 2.7% to A$5.640 by 0106 GMT, matching a 2.7% jump in the broader energy sub-index.
Analysts at Citi attributed the positive market reaction to the potential early output from Pikka, one of the largest oil prospects in Alaska. The project's first production is scheduled for mid-2026.
But Santos said a 120-mile pipeline was now substantially complete, creating "the opportunity for an early startup, subject to weather and logistics, which will become clearer in the second quarter."
The Pikka project is set to be a key asset for Santos as U.S. President Donald Trump charts plans to boost domestic energy production.
Global LNG prices have tumbled since China's first 15% retaliatory levy shut off U.S. imports in February, triggering a cascade of cargo re-routing.
The average realized price for Santos' liquefied natural gas plunged to $11.57 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), down from last year's $12.68 per MMBtu.
Sales volumes of crude oil for the quarter came in at 1.3 million barrels, down from 1.5 million barrels a year ago.
The company attributed the dip in sales volumes to no crude oil being lifted in the quarter from its Pyrenees project off Western Australia, which is operated by co-owner Woodside Energy, along with lower third-party purchases.
The country's second-largest independent gas producer said sales revenue for the three months ended March 31 came in at $1.29 billion, missing a Visible Alpha consensus estimate of $1.32 billion. It reported $1.40 billion in sales revenue a year ago.oil-gas
17 April 2025
Pipeline Gas Journal
Neuventus Gets Green Light For Gas, Liquids Storage At Texas Salt Caverns(P&GJ) — NeuVentus, LLC has received final approval from the Railroad Commission of Texas to develop 12 salt caverns at its Texas Reliability Underground (TRU) Hub in Liberty County for storage of natural gas, hydrogen, NGLs, and other products.
Located in Southeast Texas, TRU Hub sits atop the Moss Bluff salt dome and is positioned near growing demand centers, including LNG, power, data centers, industrial, and petrochemical markets.
The approved development includes eight gas caverns authorized under Texas Statewide Rule 97 and four liquids caverns under Rule 95. Once fully built, the 12 caverns could hold up to 96 Bcf of natural gas, 100,000 metric tons of hydrogen, or 128 million barrels of NGLs—or a combination thereof.
The project’s first phase will include two natural gas caverns with a total of 20 Bcf in working capacity and a daily injection rate of 2.5 Bcf per cavern. The initial buildout will also feature a large-diameter natural gas pipeline header with up to 12 potential interconnections to major intrastate and interstate pipelines.
“We are facing a defining moment in the North American energy system and particularly in natural gas infrastructure,” said Sam Porter, CEO of NeuVentus. “TRU Hub's prime location and excellent interconnectivity in the heart of the Gulf Coast, combined with the inherent flexibility of high-turn salt cavern storage, position TRU Hub exceptionally well to meet the moment and ensure that LNG, power, datacenter, industrial and petrochemical demand growth does not come at the expense of reliability.”oil-gas
17 April 2025Gas Processing and LNG
Kinder Morgan Maintains Annual Profit Forecast On Soaring Natgas DemandU.S. pipeline and terminal operator Kinder Morgan left its annual profit forecast unchanged on Wednesday, as it continued to bank on demand increase for natural gas even as President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs sparked uncertainty across the energy industry.
While Kinder Morgan does not expect tariffs to have a significant impact on project economics, it said the uncertainty sparked by them, along with commodity prices, caused the company to be "a little bit more conservative" in communicating its annual outlook.
It expects to post an adjusted profit of $1.27 per share in 2025.
The energy sector is bracing the impact of Trump's trade policy — which includes tariffs on steel imports — as well as an escalating trade war with China and falling crude prices.
"We began efforts to mitigate the potential impact early in the quarter by preordering critical project components, negotiating caps on cost increases, and securing domestic steel and mill capacity for our larger projects, which total two-thirds of our project backlog," said CEO Kim Dang.
The impact of tariffs is expected to be roughly 1% of the total project costs, she added.
Any loss in demand for U.S. LNG in the Chinese market would be more than offset by increased imports by the European Union and Asia, the company said on a conference call.
The company, which moves roughly 40% of total U.S. natural gas output, also said it continues to have a bullish outlook for natgas demand, banking on LNG export facilities and data centers.
The Houston, Texas-based firm posted an adjusted profit of $0.34 per share in the first quarter, narrowly missing estimates of $0.35 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG. This was led by weaker earnings at its products pipelines segment and an 18.2% rise in total operating costs.oil-gas
17 April 2025Saudi Gulf Projects
Oman Signs World’S First Commercial Scale Liquid Hydrogen Corridor AgreementAs part of the state visit of His Majesty Sultan Haitham bin Tarik of Oman to the Kingdom of the Netherlands, the Sultanate of Oman signed a landmark Joint Development Agreement (JDA) to establish the world’s first commercial-scale liquid hydrogen corridor linking Oman to Europe.
The project will enable the export of RFNBO-compliant liquid hydrogen from the Port of Duqm in Oman to the Port of Amsterdam in the Netherlands and the Port of Duisburg in Germany.
The agreement brings together eleven entities from Oman, the Netherlands, and Germany, including Hydrom, OQ, Port of Duqm Company SAOC, Port of Amsterdam, duisport – Duisburger Hafen AG, Ecolog International, EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG, Tata Steel, Advanced Methanol Amsterdam, Hynetwork Services and other key stakeholders.oil-gas
16 April 2025World Oil
Liberty Energy’S Profits Sink To Three-Year Low As Oil Prices Drop(Bloomberg) -- Shale fracing major Liberty Energy Inc., formerly run by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, posted its worst earnings in three years amid plunging oil prices and mounting concerns about energy demand.
Adjusted first-quarter profit fell to 4 cents a share, according to a statement Wednesday, for the worst result since early 2022. The figure matched the average estimate among analysts.
Liberty’s broad footprint across North American shale provides it a unique scope of vision for domestic oil-production trends. The Denver-based oilfield contractor has tumbled 46% this year as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war punished crude prices and tarnished the outlook for near-term fossil-fuel demand.
Liberty is the first major U.S.-based oil-service company to post quarterly results, with rival Halliburton Co. set to follow Tuesday morning.oil-gas
16 April 2025Arabian Gulf Business Insight
Oman To Build Liquefied Hydrogen Corridor With EuropeOman has taken another step towards establishing a liquefied hydrogen corridor for exports to Europe with the signing of an official agreement to develop it.
The idea was first announced during Cop28 in Dubai in 2023. Developed by Oman’s state-run hydrogen company Hydrom, the Ministry of Energy, UAE-based Ecolog and offtaker EnBW, one of Germany’s largest power companies, the project to transport green hydrogen is expected to be completed in 2030.
A joint development agreement was signed on Tuesday during Sultan Haitham bin Tariq’s state visit to the Netherlands, state-run Oman News Agency reported.
Once built, the corridor will serve as a direct export route for EU-compliant liquefied hydrogen from Duqm port to Amsterdam port.
The fuel will further be diverted to logistics centres in Germany, including the Port of Duisburg, for distribution across Europe.
Hydrom will oversee production and develop the infrastructure and business strategy.
Meanwhile, OQ Group, an energy investment and development company owned by the Oman Investment Authority, will develop the liquefied hydrogen terminal and associated facilities, including storage and export infrastructure.
The growth of green hydrogen projects in Duqm will support the corridor’s readiness and contribute to national targets, leveraging the Special Economic Ability Zone infrastructure at Duqm.
HyDuqm is one such project. Led by a consortium including France’s Engie and South Korea’s Posco, it expects to attract $7 billion to $8 billion in investment to reach full capacity.
Ecolog will handle the liquefied hydrogen transportation through specialised vessels using advanced technology.
On the European side, the corridor will focus on establishing liquefied hydrogen regasification terminals at the Port of Amsterdam.
Industrial sectors in the Netherlands and Germany will be supplied with hydrogen via gas pipelines, rail networks and waterways, the report said.
No financial details or timeline for construction were given.
Oman aims to produce at least 1 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen a year by 2030, up to 3.75 million tonnes by 2040, and up to 8.5 million tonnes by 2050. That would be greater than total hydrogen demand in Europe today.
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16 April 2025Arabian Gulf Business Insight
Oil, Tariffs And The Coming CrashDonald Trump’s tariffs amount to the biggest de facto consumer tax hike in modern US history, hitting a $30 trillion economy where domestic consumer spending drives 70 percent of GDP.
The US president’s whopping 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports also ensures that Beijing will fall well short of its 5 percent politburo-sanctioned GDP growth target.
Meanwhile, Europe is on the precipice of a structural economic slump as its constellation of industrial exports is devastated by the protectionist firestorm in Washington.
A global recession is thus inevitable.
Projections of 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) consumption growth in 2025 have now morphed into zero growth – or even demand destruction.
The US investment bank Goldman Sachs has slashed its Brent target three times in the past month, warning of $40 crude in an “extreme” market scenario. This time, the wolf is real and the wolf is here.
On April 3 eight Opec+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman – amplified angst in the global crude market by tripling their collective May output increase to 411,000 bpd.
The surprise decision was announced amid a global market crash, a day after Trump’s “Liberation Day” unleashed a barrage of punitive international tariffs. The timing was no coincidence.
Just four days later on April 7 Saudi Arabia fired what can be seen as a warning shot at Opec+ quota violators.
The kingdom directed the state-owned energy giant Aramco to slash its posted price for Ras Tanura Arabian Light cargoes by $2 a barrel, demonstrating that it will not surrender downstream market share in Asia without a fight.
This strategic move triggered what has become a 20 percent fall in Brent and WTI light sweet crude prices since late March.
This is a death spiral eerily reminiscent of past oil market crashes like the “ghosts of Jakarta” in 1997, when Brent bottomed at $10, and Saudi Arabia’s campaign against Texan shale, which pummelled prices from $115 in June 2014 to $28 in 2016.
In the last oil price war, between Saudi Arabia and Russia in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, crude plunged to $20 in the spot market and to negative $37 in futures, as storage facilities from Oklahoma to the North Sea ran dry.
Saudi Arabia’s latest warning is aimed primarily at Kazakhstan, Iraq and Russia. But several other Opec+ states are quietly exceeding their output quotas as well.
With the lowest drilling costs, the largest reserves and spare capacity and a voluntary 1 million bpd cut still up its sleeve, Riyadh holds all the cards. Releasing just 500,000 extra barrels could be enough to crash prices.
Geopolitical game theory may explain why Saudi Arabia has chosen this dangerous moment to engage in a game of swing producer chicken with its supposed “allies”.
The current White House’s biggest mid-term election risk is an inflation spike triggered by tariff-induced supply shocks. When Trump secured a second term last November, he promised to bring down gasoline prices.
To help Washington deliver on that pledge to Trump’s MAGA base, Saudi Arabia stepped in, setting the stage for his upcoming state visit to the GCC as a gesture of gratitude and strategic alignment.Another plausible explanation lies in Diego Garcia, where B-2 stealth bombers armed with 40,000-pound bunker busters have been quietly deployed.
Their presence points to a contingency plan: if high-stakes nuclear talks in Oman collapse and Trump orders a blitzkrieg on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Riyadh’s reserve barrels could be released to soften the blow of any war-induced supply shock.
Falling oil prices will only embolden the cash-strapped regimes of Astana, Baghdad, Erbil and a post-sanctions Moscow to ramp up quota violations
Even at $60 a barrel, the downside risk in Brent crude far outweighs its upside potential, especially if kinetic warfare erupts with Iran.
Hedge funds are already positioned short across the Chicago, London and Singapore futures markets.
Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff blitz and the $12 trillion wipeout in global equities have delivered a double blow to growth and sentiment, setting the stage for unavoidable demand destruction in the wet barrel market.
Falling oil prices will only embolden the cash-strapped regimes of Astana, Baghdad, Erbil and a post-sanctions Moscow to ramp up quota violations.
As for the Dragon Empire, the world’s largest oil importer, the full impact of Washington’s tariff offensive remains both unknown and unknowable at this early stage.
But net-net, the summer of 2025 could see Brent crude crash into the low $50s, or even further, toward Goldman Sachs’ $40 extreme-case scenario. The heat is on.
Matein Khalid is an investor in global financial markets and board adviser to leading family offices in the UAE and Saudi Arabia
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16 April 2025Energy Capital Power
What A National Gas Master Plan Means For AngolaAngola is on the cusp of implementing its National Gas Master Plan (NGMP), following the completion of a public consultation process in late 2024. This comprehensive, 30-year strategy is designed to attract investment throughout the gas value chain, support economic diversification and bolster energy security. As Angola prepares to host the sixth edition of the Angola Oil & Gas (AOG) conference this September 3-4, 2025, the NGMP is expected to take center stage, highlighting the transformative potential of natural gas development for the national economy.
A Clear Investment Framework
The NGMP introduces a strong regulatory foundation to support gas-related investment in Angola. It provides a structured roadmap for investors, outlining opportunities in exploration, production and infrastructure development, while clearly defining fiscal terms, tax expectations and investment gaps. This transparency is expected to boost investor confidence and facilitate the efficient deployment of capital and resources. According to legal advisory firm Eversheds Sutherland, the NGMP could attract over $30 billion in investment and deliver more than $150 billion in economic benefits.
Non-Associated Gas Development
A central pillar of the NGMP is the promotion of non-associated gas projects. With the majority of Angola’s gas derived from associated gas projects, the country seeks to incentivize non-associated investment to increase supply and monetize underdeveloped resources. The country’s first non-associated gas project – developed by the New Gas Consortium – is progressing toward a late-2025 start. Offshore platforms for the project were completed in February 2025, and gas from the Quiluma and Maboqueiro fields will supply the Angola LNG plant and other domestic industries. Building on this momentum, the NGMP offers competitive fiscal terms to encourage further investment in gas-dedicated projects.
Enhancing Supply Security
Angola’s transition to a gas-powered economy depends on securing long-term supply. Recent efforts by operators to increase gas production aim to bring the Angola LNG facility to full operational capacity for the first time. Expansion plans for the plant include the addition of a new mini-train capable of producing three million tons per year. Supporting this effort, Chevron’s Sanha Lean Gas Connection project achieved first gas in December 2024, increasing feedstock to Angola LNG by 300 million cubic feet per day following full commissioning. The NGMP supports such developments by mapping out infrastructure needs for production and distribution, reinforcing energy security for Angola’s future.
A Competitive Domestic Market
The NGMP also aims to develop a competitive domestic gas market in Angola, primarily through the development of value-added industries such as petrochemicals, power generation and LPG. While the short-term objectives of the plan are to strengthen supply and increase production, Eversheds Sutherland explains that the long-term objectives (2036-2050) include expanded infrastructure, the conversion of diesel-fired power plants and the development of gas distribution projects. By establishing guidelines for the effective use of gas in the domestic market, the NGMP strives to enhance domestic gas utilization while driving sustainable economic development.
Diversifying Angola’s Energy Industry
By increasing the share of natural gas in Angola’s energy mix to 25% by 2025, the NGMP will reduce dependence on oil, mitigate exposure to price volatility and reinforce the country’s energy security. Projects such as the Sanha Lean Gas Connection, the New Gas Consortium development and future initiatives are expected to deliver stable gas supplies for both domestic use and export.oil-gas
16 April 2025Gulf Oil and Gas
Oracle Power Plc Announces Mou For Green Hydrogen Project RenewedOracle Power PLC (AIM: ORCP), a developer of green hydrogen production through its joint venture Oracle Energy Limited ("Oracle Energy"), is pleased to confirm that the strategic Memorandum of Understanding ("MoU") with China Electric Power and Technology Co., Ltd ("CET") which was previously signed and announced on 7 March 2023 and set to expire on 2 March 2025 to potentially develop, finance, construct, operate and maintain Oracle Energy's Green Hydrogen Project in Thatta, Sindh Province, Pakistan (the "Green Hydrogen Project") has been renewed for an additional two years to 1 March 2027.
CET is a wholly-owned subsidiary of State Grid Corporation of China, which is the largest utility company in the world and, as of March 2024, the third largest company overall by revenue. The MoU with CET, which has a mandate to finance, build, operate and maintain large renewable power generation projects within and outside of China, is focused on accelerating the development of Oracle Energy's Green Hydrogen Project, which includes the construction of a Hybrid Renewable Energy Production and Storage facility, combining 800MW of solar and 500MW of wind power, and battery storage.
The planned Green Hydrogen Production facility, when fully commissioned, would produce an estimated 150,000kg of hydrogen per day (55,000 tons per annum), and would be one of the largest such projects in Asia.
Naheed Memon, CEO of Oracle, commented:
"Oracle Energy's vision of developing one of the largest green hydrogen production facilities globally has progressed significantly towards being realised through partnering with CET. We are grateful to this State Grid subsidiary for its continued support. CET has so far successfully partnered with Oracle Energy to complete the comprehensive technical and financial Renewable Power Production and the crucial Interconnection Transmission Grid studies. The extension of this important partnership is testament to CET's commitment to the development of the project going forward. Oracle Energy is looking to secure off-take arrangements and aims to complete financial arrangements in the near term."oil-gas
16 April 2025World Oil
Haynesville Natural Gas Market Will Shift Amid Price Volatility, Enverus SaysEnverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) is releasing a series of reports focused on its Haynesville growth forecast including natural gas production, operational efficiencies and Henry Hub basis fluctuations amid high price volatility.
According to EIR, the high volatility in natural gas prices expected at East Texas hubs served by Haynesville production is driven by timing mismatches related to gas supply, pipeline development and LNG export demand. Over the next decade, the Haynesville is anticipated to experience underutilized pipeline capacity, according to EIR reports.
“Operator guidance and a minimal increase in drilling activity in the Haynesville has driven a downgrade for our 2025 and 2026 production outlook,” said Alex Ljubojevic, director at EIR.
Jason Feit, an adviser at EIR added, “Gas producers and consumers should expect volatile prices at key trading hubs in Texas over the next few years as new pipelines come onstream and alter supply-demand dynamics. Prices at the Katy and Carthage trading points should stabilize in 2028 and beyond but expect a bumpy ride until then.”
“There could be as much as 6 Bcf/d of underutilized pipeline capacity over the next decade in the Haynesville. Legacy pipelines and those lacking LNG access face the most challenges,” Feit said.
Key takeaways from the report:oil-gas
16 April 2025World Oil
Iraq To Cut Oil Exports Amid Opec+ Pressure To Comply With Production Limits(Bloomberg) – Iraq plans to cut oil exports next month as OPEC+ presses members to adhere to production targets, according to an official with knowledge of the matter.
OPEC’s second-largest producer aims to reduce shipments by roughly 100,000 barrels a day to an average of 3.2 million barrels a day in May, the official said, asking not to be identified as the figures aren’t public.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners announced last month they would gradually start reviving production halted two years ago, but sought to offset the increases by insisting on better discipline from quota-violators. Iraq, along with some other members of the OPEC+ alliance, is under pressure from the group’s leaders to make extra supply curbs as compensation for overproducing during the past year.
OPEC+ uses oil production rather than exports to measure compliance with its targets. Iraq’s output was about 90,000 barrels a day more than its target last month, according to figures used by OPEC+, while estimates from the International Energy Agency put the figure at more than 300,000 barrels a day above its quota.
While Iraq’s export reduction may indicate it has correspondingly curbed production, an associated drop isn’t guaranteed. The country has in the past often promised quota adherence and then failed to deliver.
Baghdad has long chafed against OPEC+ output limits, as it seeks to rebuild its economy and trading relationships after decades of sanctions and conflict. The country would need an oil price of $92 a barrel in order to cover government spending this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. Brent crude futures are trading near $65.
Oil has tumbled this year, dropping sharply the past two weeks as US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs upended global markets. The lower price puts particular pressure on Middle Eastern economies that are dependent on oil. Iraq, especially, needs higher prices to support spending as it rebuilds an economy weakened by years of war.
Data from OPEC+ released on Wednesday showed that Iraq made some notional progress with its compensation backlog last month, while Kazakhstan — the group’s biggest offender — instead overshot its limits even more starkly.oil-gas
16 April 2025World Oil
Vista Buys Petronas' Argentina Oil Stake In $1.5 Billion DealVista Energy has acquired Petronas' 50% stake in the Vaca Muerta shale basin in a deal valued at $1.5 billion USD. Vista estimates that the area, known as La Amarga Chica (LACh) could potentially hold 400 new well locations to be drilled in its inventory (at 100% working interest). The remaining 50% of LACh is held by operator YPF S.A.
The purchase price is comprised of US$ 900 million in cash, US$ 300 million in deferred cash payments and 7,297,507 American Depositary Shares.
LACh spans across 46,594 acres in the black oil window of Vaca Muerta. As of December 31, 2024, it had 247 wells on production. In addition, as of December 31, 2023, LACh had 280 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe) of P1 reserves according to the Argentine Secretary of Energy (at 100% working interest). During the fourth quarter of 2024, LACh produced 79,543 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) at 100% working interest, of which 71,471 barrels per day (bpd) were oil, according to the Argentine Secretary of Energy.
Vista estimates LACh could potentially hold 400 new well locations to be drilled in its inventory (at 100% working interest). The remaining 50% of LACh is held by operator YPF S.A.
“With this acquisition we gain significant scale in Vaca Muerta with a premium block that has growing production and low operating costs, enabling the acceleration of our long-term plan and strengthening our free-cashflow profile,” said Miguel Galuccio, Vista’s Chairman and CEO. “The acquisition both increases our profitability and enhances our portfolio of ready-to-drill locations in the core area of Vaca Muerta. Importantly, in the current global macro and oil price environment we are consolidating a high- margin, low- breakeven asset, with strong synergies with our ongoing operation, reflecting our constructive long-term view on crude oil demand and supply dynamics. I firmly believe this represents a unique opportunity to create long-term value for our shareholders.”
Images: YPFoil-gas
16 April 2025