Us Oil Production Forecasted To Peak At 14Mbbl/D In 2027: Eia Report

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that US oil production will peak at 14 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) in 2027, maintaining this level until the end of the decade, before declining.

This projection signals the impending end of the US shale boom, with output expected to fall to approximately 11.3mbbl/d by 2050.

The EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook highlights that the US, the world’s largest oil producer, will see a gradual decline from the current production level of around 13.7mbbl/d.

The report suggests that former US President Joe Biden’s policies have influenced this trajectory, despite record-setting oil output during his tenure in 2023 and 2024.

The Department of Energy (DOE) attributed this decline to Biden’s policies, stating they have set a “disastrous path” for US energy production.

However, the issuance of drilling permits accelerated under Biden compared with Trump’s first term, according to the DOE, reported Reuters.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that Trump’s tariffs on trading partners have increased costs for shale drillers, impacting US oil output forecasts for 2025.

US shale oil production is projected to peak at 10mbbl/d in 2027, up from around 9.69mbbl/d this year, before declining to 9.33mbl/d by 2050, as per the EIA.

The post-pandemic recovery in US oil demand is expected to stabilise next year, with demand edging up slightly from 20.51mbbl/d this year to 20.52mbbl/d next year.

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, US oil consumption averaged 20.54mbbl/d in 2019, with a record high in 2005 of 20.80mbbl/d.

The EIA recently lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts, citing weaker economic activity due to the US-China trade war.

Brent crude is expected to average $67.87 a barrel (bbl) this year, down from an earlier forecast of $74.22/bbl. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is forecasted to average $63.88/bbl in 2025, nearly $7 below the prior forecast.

Brent futures were trading slightly below $65/bbl on Tuesday, down around 13% this year, while WTI futures were around $61.25/bbl, down about 14%.

The IEA also predicts that global oil demand growth will slow, with US production tapering due to Trump’s tariffs and retaliatory moves from trading partners.

The IEA reported a sharp cut in world oil demand growth this year, projecting a rise of 730,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from the previous forecast of 1.03mbbl/d.

“The deteriorating outlook for the global economy amid the sudden sharp escalation in trade tensions has prompted a downgrade to our forecast for oil demand growth this year,” the IEA stated.

In 2026, the IEA predicts a further slowdown in demand growth to 690,000bpd due to economic fragility and increased electric vehicle adoption.