in Freight News
16/04/2025
China’s steel exports surged again in March and are expected to remain high in April, as exporters rush to ship most of their already-signed export orders during March and April, amid rising trade barriers.
China is also cracking down on tax evasion around certain steel trade activities, which could impact exports, China-based trading sources said.
A notable decline in steel exports is expected in May and beyond, they added.
In March, China exported 10.456 million mt of finished steel, up 5.7% on the year, hitting the fourth-highest level in history, China Customs data showed April 14.
Daily steel exports averaged 337,290 mt in March, up 17.3% from the average in January-February.
Over January-March, China’s finished steel exports increased 6.3%, or 1.629 million mt, on the year to 27.429 million mt.
“The strong steel exports in March are within expectation, as domestic steel demand remained sluggish, and overseas order bookings received in January-February [mainly for March shipments] were strong,” said a mill source.
“The strong steel exports in March were not just a result of weak domestic market, but also as people were in a rush to ship Chinese steel out before further escalation of trade barriers and tensions,” said the source.
From January to April 14, Vietnam, South Korea, Colombia, the EU, Malaysia and India imposed import duties on certain Chinese steel products(opens in a new tab). These duties affect about 7.8 million mt/year of steel imports into these countries from China, according to market sources and data from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Global Trade Analytics Suite.
In addition, 20 more trade cases, mainly antidumping, from 16 countries and regions against Chinese steel are currently under investigation. If all cases lead to the imposition of import duties, about 9.85 million mt/year of China’s steel exports will be affected, according to the GTAS data.
With countries strengthening their antidumping laws in response to the ongoing tariff spat(opens in a new tab), traders believe there could be more trade cases filed against Chinese steel in the rest of 2025.
In addition to the adverse impact of trade cases on China’s steel exports, the US country-specific reciprocal tariffs, although being paused for 90 days, could also dent China’s steel exports.
Vietnam, South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand were the top four destinations of China’s steel exports in 2024, accounting for about 28% of China’s total steel exports. The US has so far paused 25%-46% reciprocal tariffs on these four countries for 90 days on April 9, but a resumption in these tariffs will impact their demand for Chinese steel.
Robust steel exports in April
According to market participants, China’s steel exports will remain strong in April, as talk in the market indicates that China will strengthen efforts to crack down on tax-evading steel trades since May 1, and therefore some shipments in May and June will be brought forward into April.
“It remains to be seen how serious the crackdown efforts will be, but a decline in tax-evading steel trades since May is certain,” said a trading source.
Overall, market participants expected China’s steel exports to gradually decline from May, and the export market will become more challenging in the second half of 2025 amid highly uncertain global trade policies.
In March, China’s finished steel imports fell by 18.8% on the year to 501,000 mt, taking the total finished steel imports over January-March to 1.55 million mt, down 11.3% on the year, customs data showed.
As a result, China’s net finished steel exports in January-March increased by 7.6%, or 1.827 million mt, on the year, to 25.879 million mt.
Source: Platts