in Port News

04/04/2025

The US National Retail Federation expects steady growth in retail sales to drive import volumes higher in 2025 as retailers work to replenish inventories, it said April 2.

Matthew Shay, president and CEO of NRF, said in a webinar on the outlook for retail and consumer behavior that retail sales saw a notable increase in 2024, with growth of more than 3.6% over 2023, bringing total sales to more than $5.3 trillion.

This performance sets a positive tone for 2025, when retail sales are expected to continue on an upward trajectory. Projections indicate a growth range of 2.7%- 3.7%, reflecting sustained consumer demand and resilience within the retail sector.

The 2023 holiday season further illustrated the sector’s performance, with sales growing by 4% to approximately $995 billion. This strong performance during critical shopping periods suggests that consumer spending may remain robust as retailers prepare for the 2025 holiday season.

Additionally, the ongoing shift to e-commerce has played a significant role in driving sales growth. Retailers are increasingly focusing on meeting consumer preferences for quality products at competitive prices, with many shoppers opting for the convenience of online purchasing. This trend is expected to persist into 2024 and 2025, leading to heightened demand for imports as retailers strive to maintain adequate inventory levels.

Container rates into the US climbed in 2024, in part driven by higher inflows.

According to Platts data, the average container rates from North Asia to West Coast North America (PCR13) jumped 203% year over year to $4,612/FEU in 2024, and rates from North Asia to East Coast North America (PCR5) jumped 148% to $6,076/FEU over the same period.

Challenges impacting import growth

While the outlook is generally positive, notable challenges could hinder import growth, NRF said.

Despite optimistic projections, the economic outlook for 2025 suggests potential headwinds. GDP growth is expected to decelerate to just below 2%, down from 2.8% in 2024, potentially impacting consumer spending.

Consumer confidence is also on the decline due to persistent inflation and concerns regarding tariffs.

“Over the last several years, wages have grown faster than inflation,” said Katherine Cullen, NRF’s vice president of industry and consumer insights. “This meant many people could take on the additional strain of higher prices while still maintaining a high-consumption lifestyle. But without the extra cushion from savings, consumers are now more vulnerable to economic shocks, things like even higher prices, job loss or reduced wages. In other words, everything is great for the consumer until it isn’t. And some people are already feeling squeezed.”

Although consumer fundamentals remain strong, this drop in confidence may influence spending behavior, particularly among vulnerable demographics. Lower-income households are especially at risk, grappling with significant inflation impacts and tighter budgets, which could lead to reduced discretionary spending and, ultimately, affect overall retail sales

Ongoing policy uncertainty surrounding trade regulations continues to weigh heavily on both consumer and business confidence. Retailers are apprehensive about how potential changes in trade policies could affect their ability to source products and manage costs effectively.

Moreover, inflation remains a critical concern, impacting consumers’ purchasing power and fostering more cautious spending habits, particularly for discretionary goods. The NRF has observed a shift in consumer behavior, with shoppers becoming increasingly selective in their purchases, prioritizing essential items over non-essential ones. This shift could limit the growth of discretionary imports, further constraining overall volume growth.

Looking ahead to 2025, while consumer fundamentals such as low unemployment and steady income growth remain intact, concerns about the trajectory of consumer spending persist. Public policy shifts and economic uncertainties are likely to introduce unpredictability into the market, raising the likelihood of a slower pace of economic activity.

Source: Platts