China’s scheduled production of the country’s three most popular home appliances – air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines – is projected to reach 28.33 million units next month, down 6.3% from actual output recorded in August 2025, according to the latest report from ChinaIOL.com, a domestic information provider tracking China’s home appliance and refrigeration industries.

If realized, the decline would be marginally smaller than the 7.1% drop predicted for output this month, Mysteel Global noted.

Air-conditioners

Among the three categories, air-conditioners are still expected to post the sharpest fall, with scheduled output forecast to decline 16.7% on year to 10.73 million units, widening from the 13.4% fall expected for July.

Specifically, scheduled production of air-conditioners for domestic sales in August is expected to decline by 24.1% from actual domestic sales in the same month last year, according to ChinaIOL.

Weak end-user demand remains the key factor for the decline. Typhoon-affected weather has kept temperatures in South China, including Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian, below levels needed to stimulate air-conditioning sales, the provider observed, while overdrawn demand also pressured domestic growth.

Also, most compressor and air-conditioner manufacturers are set to have equipment maintenance and factory holidays in August and September, resulting in slight production cuts.

Meanwhile, scheduled production of air-conditioners for export in August is projected at 4.86 million units, down 8.1% on year from actual exports in the same month last year.

The decline has narrowed slightly, supported by signs of gradual recovery in orders from Latin America, North America and the Middle East, the provider suggested. Meanwhile, high temperatures in France, the UK and Germany have provided a boost to air-conditioning demand in Europe, particularly for portable and installation-free split units. This is helping to accelerate local destocking and could potentially drive some restocking activity in coming months, as Mysteel Global has reported.

Refrigerators

Refrigerator production is projected to edge up 0.7% to 8.77 million units next month, largely unchanged from July's forecast 0.7% growth.

For the domestic market, August refrigerator production is scheduled at 3.7 million units, down 4.6% on year from actual sales in August last year.

Weak consumer confidence and cautious channel restocking have kept domestic production on a downward tack, ChinaIOL noted. The slowing pace of production has also caused many manufacturers to extend their summer holidays or arrange staggered vacations, unlike in previous years, according to the provider.

Refrigerator production for export is scheduled at 5.07 million units next month, up 6.9% on year from actual exports in August last year. Orders for refrigerators in most markets remain higher than last year, with Africa and South America recording relatively strong growth, supported by robust demand, limited local production capacity and cost advantages.

Washing Machines

The biggest surprise comes from the washing machine sector where output next month is expected to increase 2.3% to 8.83 million units, reversing the 1.7% decline seen in July's scheduled production.

Production for washing machines for domestic sales is forecast at 3.85 million units in August, down 1% on year from actual sales in the same month last year, with the decline narrowing from previous months, as the table shows.

High inventories at both factories and sales channels continue to weigh on the market. In addition, elevated crude oil prices have pushed up raw material costs, with higher prices for copper, aluminum and ABS plastics adding to production pressures. Facing weak demand and shrinking margins, leading manufacturers are actively controlling capacity utilization, prioritizing export orders while further reducing domestic production plans.

Production for washing machines for export is scheduled at 4.98 million units next month, up 4.3% on year from actual exports in August 2025. Export growth is expected to continue, which should help to offset the impact of weakening domestic demand. Meanwhile, declining local production in Europe has created steady import demand, while improved capacity of cross-border logistics channels such as the China-Europe Railway Express has further supported orders. Africa and Latin America are also becoming increasingly important destinations for Chinese washing machine exports.

Looking ahead, exports of washing machines are expected to remain at elevated levels, but growth momentum may face increasing pressure, the provider suggested.