✅ Key Takeaways

Introduction: Nucor, Steel, and the New Price Landscape

Nucor Steel Price Actions: From January Levels to the February 2 CSP Hike

Global Steel Production Trends: Why Lower Output Supports Higher Steel Prices

U.S. Carbon Steel Imports: Sharp Drops in Flat Rolled and Coated Products

How Nucor’s Steel Price Strategy Fits the Supply Demand Balance

Current Nucor Steel Prices in Context: Levels and Differentials

Case Study: Nucor’s Multi Step HRC Price Increases and Market Reaction

Demand Signals, Risk Factors, and What Could Derail Higher Steel Prices

Conclusion: What Nucor’s Steel Price Move Tells Us About the 2026 Market

Check out our most recent articles below:

📬

one.

✅ Nucor lifted its CSP hot rolled coil steel price to

, with Nucor CSI at

, signaling continued upward momentum in early February 2026.

✅ Global steel production is slowing, with December 2025 output down 3.7 percent year over year and China posting double digit declines, underscoring a tighter supply backdrop.

✅ U.S. carbon steel imports have dropped sharply, with carbon flat rolled volumes and coated steel imports at multi year lows, reducing external supply pressure and supporting higher domestic steel prices.

Nucor’s latest CSP hot rolled coil

announcement for the week of February 2 sends an important signal to buyers across the flat rolled value chain. Effective immediately, the CSP HRC base price is

for all producing mills, with a

level at the Nucor CSI location. This move follows earlier early 2026 price actions and comes at a time when global supply is softening while U.S. import flows are retreating, tightening effective availability for domestic buyers.

Behind this seemingly simple

adjustment lies a complex mix of factors. Global crude steel production has been slipping, particularly in China, while macroeconomic uncertainty and uneven demand have kept buyers cautious. At the same time, U.S. carbon steel imports, especially carbon flat rolled and coated products, have dropped sharply, removing a key source of competition for domestic mills. The combination of weaker global output, lower import inflows, and disciplined mill pricing strategy helps explain why Nucor feels confident pushing CSP HRC higher at this stage of the cycle.

The February 2 Nucor CSP HRC price move is not an isolated announcement; it reflects tightening effective supply, weaker imports, and a producer trying to secure higher transaction levels at the start of 2026.

Nucor’s early 2026 pricing pattern shows a deliberate attempt to rebuild hot rolled coil margins after a period of plateaued pricing. In January, Nucor had already moved CSP HRC higher from prior flat levels, with successive increases taking the base closer to the high

range for standard mills and the low

level for its CSI joint venture. The new week of February 2 pricing cements this trajectory by setting CSP HRC at

and

at CSI, marking another firm step up from earlier targets. This aligns with Nucor’s broader history of using frequent incremental moves rather than one time, outsized increases to shape the

environment.​

The CSI premium is particularly important for coastal and West Coast buyers. With CSI pegged at

, Nucor signals that regional dynamics – freight, limited local supply, and import competition – justify higher

in that market. For buyers in the central and eastern U.S., the

CSP level provides the benchmark for spot negotiations, with actual transaction levels depending on volume, gauge, width, and relationship depth. In practice, many service centers will treat the CSP price as a floor and push for modest discounts, but the coordinated target across Nucor mills provides pricing discipline and supports broader domestic HRC indexes.

The February CSP HRC increase to $970/ton ($1,020/ton at CSI) reinforces Nucor’s stepwise approach to raising hot rolled coil prices, setting firmer floors for spot negotiations across regions.

To understand the

trajectory, it helps to look at the global supply picture. According to the World Steel Association, crude steel production among the 70 reporting countries reached

, a

decline versus December 2024. A separate summary notes that China, which accounts for roughly half of world output, produced

that month, down

year over year, highlighting a sharp deceleration in the world’s largest steel producing nation. For the full year 2025, global production also drifted lower versus 2024, making it the weakest annual average since the late 2010s.

This slowdown matters directly for

formation. When China and other major producers cut output, export availability can shrink, reducing the flow of competitively priced material into global markets. Although Nucor chiefly serves the North American market, it cannot ignore the ripple effects of tighter global supply and reduced export offers. Lower global production also aligns with a broader trend of mills favoring margin over volume, repeatedly adjusting output to match demand and preserve pricing power. In effect, this backdrop creates more room for Nucor’s CSP HRC increases to stick, especially if buyers see fewer attractive offshore alternatives.

Global crude steel production declines – particularly China’s double digit December drop – provide a supportive supply backdrop for higher Nucor steel prices and stronger CSP HRC targets.

The U.S. import environment is another crucial pillar behind the current

trajectory. Preliminary Census data for 2025 show that U.S. imports for consumption of carbon (non alloy) steel products have been under pressure, with year to date carbon flat rolled imports significantly below the prior year. Within that category, November saw particularly weak volumes, with carbon steel imports down sharply compared with both October and the same month a year earlier. Carbon flat rolled imports slid by more than one third month over month, while coated sheet, including hot dipped galvanized (HDG), recorded steep daily rate declines, reaching some of the lowest levels in roughly two decades.

This collapse in carbon flat rolled and coated imports matters because these products directly compete with Nucor’s CSP HRC and downstream offerings. When import arrivals fall, domestic mills gain leverage, especially if demand is stable or only modestly softer. The sharp drop in HDG imports per day, for example, tightens supply in the coated segment and allows higher base

to flow from HRC into value added products. For service centers and OEMs accustomed to using imports as a bargaining chip, the current data imply fewer options and longer lead times on foreign material, pushing more tons toward domestic mills like Nucor.

Steep declines in U.S. carbon flat rolled and coated steel imports reduce competitive pressure on domestic mills, making it easier for Nucor’s higher HRC CSP prices to hold in spot negotiations.

Putting global production and U.S. imports together, Nucor’s current

strategy looks deliberately calibrated to a tightening supply demand balance rather than a demand driven boom. Global output is shrinking, particularly in China, while U.S. import volumes of carbon flat rolled and coated products are at multi year lows. This means that even if U.S. demand is not surging, effective availability is constrained by lower imports and cautious mill output. In that context, Nucor can push CSP HRC toward

and beyond without immediately triggering a wave of buyer resistance or substitution.

At the same time, Nucor’s regional premium at CSI reinforces a targeted approach. Coastal markets are where imports typically exert the strongest influence, yet the sharp drop in global offers and weaker Chinese exports create room for higher coastal

without losing significant share. By differentiating prices between CSI and other producing mills, Nucor can reflect freight economics, regional inventory positions, and localized demand, all while keeping a coherent national pricing framework. For buyers, this means less arbitrage between regions and a clearer sense of where HRC transaction levels are likely to settle in the near term.

Nucor’s February CSP HRC increases reflect a supply constrained environment shaped by weaker global output and sharply lower imports, allowing the producer to defend higher prices without dramatically cutting volumes.

In this context, the

CSP HRC level and

CSI premium are not outliers but rather consistent with a market where supply is constrained and imports are scarce. If global output were rising and U.S. ports were flooded with low priced flat rolled steel, such aggressive Nucor

targets would likely face pushback. Instead, the data point toward a market where buyers have fewer alternatives, and mills can translate cost pressures and disciplined production into higher transaction prices.

Nucor’s new CSP HRC benchmarks align with a broader environment of lower global output and weak U.S. imports, making current

more sustainable than they might appear at first glance.

Recent history offers a useful case study in how Nucor’s stepwise

strategy plays out. In 2025, Nucor implemented a series of CSP HRC increases, raising the base price several times over a short period. Public reporting in early 2025 noted base prices at

for most mills and

at CSI after multiple upward revisions, illustrating the company’s readiness to move prices in increments as market conditions allowed. Each move built on the prior one, with mill communications linking the increases to tighter supply, rising scrap and raw material costs, and the need to restore sustainable margins.

The pattern is similar again in early 2026. After holding CSP HRC at

for several weeks, Nucor moved to

, then

, and now

with CSI escalating into the low

range. Market reaction has typically been cautious acceptance rather than outright rejection. Service centers and OEMs may resist in initial negotiations, but as other mills follow Nucor’s lead or quietly align their offers, the new benchmarks tend to solidify in spot indexes. The combination of lower imports and cautious global production makes it harder for buyers to find cheaper alternatives, which ultimately supports Nucor’s pricing discipline.​

Nucor’s multi step HRC price increase strategy has a proven track record: incremental moves initially meet resistance but often solidify as market benchmarks once other mills align and supply alternatives remain tight.

While the

backdrop is currently constructive, several demand side risks could cap or reverse further gains. U.S. macro indicators entering 2026 have been mixed, with consumer sentiment under pressure, manufacturing surveys hovering near contraction, and construction growth uneven across segments. If these trends worsen, service centers may find themselves sitting on higher priced inventory just as end user orders slow, prompting destocking and pushback against mill price lists. In such a scenario, even a reduced import flow might not be enough to prevent spot

from slipping as buyers work off inventories.

Another key risk factor is the trajectory of raw material costs and energy prices. If scrap, iron ore, and coking coal retreat from recent highs, mills could see some margin relief even without maintaining CSP HRC at current levels. That might open the door for selective discounting, especially for larger volume buyers or key strategic accounts. On the flip side, any renewed spike in raw material prices would give Nucor and other producers additional justification for further

hikes. Buyers should therefore monitor both demand indicators and raw material benchmarks when deciding how aggressively to purchase at current CSP levels.

The last major variable in analyzing future

movements is U.S. steel tariff policy itself. Any change to tariffs – whether a reduction that opens the door to more low cost imports, or an increase or tightening of enforcement that restricts foreign supply – can have a direct and often rapid impact on domestic steel prices. Market participants who ignore this policy risk can be caught off guard by sudden shifts in import competitiveness, mill order books, and spot pricing when trade measures are adjusted or new circumvention rules are introduced.

Higher Nucor steel prices are supported by supply dynamics but remain vulnerable to weaker end demand, shifting macro indicators, potential easing in raw material and energy costs, and policy shifts in steel tariffs that can quickly reshape the import calculus.

Nucor’s decision to raise CSP hot rolled coil

to

, with a

premium at CSI, encapsulates many of the key forces shaping the flat rolled market in early 2026. Global crude steel production is shrinking, especially in China; U.S. carbon steel imports – particularly carbon flat rolled and coated products – have dropped sharply; and mills are using disciplined output and coordinated price lists to rebuild margins. The result is a market where buyers face fewer low cost alternatives and must navigate higher domestic HRC benchmarks with care.

For market participants, the critical question is whether these

are a temporary spike or the foundation for a more durable pricing plateau. The answer will depend on the interplay between macroeconomic growth, end user demand in construction, manufacturing, and consumer goods, and any further changes in global production and trade flows. As you plan your 2026 purchasing and pricing strategies, consider how your business would perform under both a sustained

HRC environment and a potential correction back toward the 800s. What data points – from imports and global output to demand indicators in your own order book – will you watch most closely to decide when to lean in or pull back on steel purchases?

Nucor’s latest CSP HRC increase is a clear signal that mills see room to hold or even extend higher

in 2026, but buyers’ outcomes will depend on how actively they monitor the data and manage purchasing risk in a still volatile market.

▶️ [Video] Nucor Raises HRC CSP Steel Price to Kick Off February 2026 by Steel Industry News

🎧 [Podcast] Nucor Raises HRC CSP Steel Price to Kick Off February 2026 by Steel Industry News

World Steel Association – “December 2025 crude steel production and 2025 global crude steel production”

​

World Steel Association (worldsteel) – LinkedIn summary of December 2025 crude steel production and China output

​

World Steel Association – “2025 Press Releases” (monthly crude steel production updates)

​

U.S. Census Bureau – “U.S. Imports for Consumption of Steel Products (FT900A) – Steel Information and Historical Releases”

​

U.S. Census Bureau – Preliminary and final “U.S. Imports for Consumption of Steel Products” monthly reports (carbon/non-alloy flat rolled and coated products)

Example recent PDF:

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IndexBox – “Nucor Announces Price Increase for Hot-Rolled Coils”

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GMK Center – “Nucor raises prices for hot-rolled coils for the fourth time since the beginning of the year”

​

GMK Center – “Nucor has increased prices for hot rolled coils by $155/t since the beginning of the year”

​

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