However, market data indicate that growth momentum is expected to slow markedly in 2026 and beyond.

According to sector data, Thailand’s steel market remains heavily reliant on imports. As of 2025, around 55% of total steel supply was covered by imports, with China accounting for the largest share at 46%. Japan followed with a 31% share, while South Korea accounted for 13%.

As of the end of January 2026, steel prices in the domestic Thai market have been on a downward trend. Scrap prices recorded a month on month decrease of 1.8%, while rebar prices saw a sharper decrease of 3.7%, falling to 19,665 baht per tonne. Market participants stated that weakening demand and strong import pressure continue to weigh on prices.

Expectations for the 2026–2027 period point to a more moderate increase in consumption. Steel demand is forecast to increase by between 1% and 1.6%, averaging around 18.7 to 18.9 million tonnes annually. Disruptions in global supply chains, geopolitical uncertainties and a loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector are seen as the main factors limiting growth.

Several structural risks remain in focus for Thailand’s steel sector. High household debt levels are constraining domestic demand and weakening local purchasing power. At the same time, production increases in China and India, along with capacity expansions in ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia, are intensifying regional competition. Low priced imports and ongoing dumping practices continue to pressure local producers. In addition, tightening global environmental regulations aimed at reducing carbon emissions, together with potential changes in international trade policies, are expected to accelerate structural transformation in Thailand’s steel industry in the coming period.