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Türkiye Drops Coal Plans But Remains Alone Among Oecd Without A Ban On New Coal Plant Permits

Global Energy Monitor

Türkiye Drops Coal Plans But Remains Alone Among Oecd Without A Ban On New Coal Plant PermitsTürkiye has called off plans for three coal plants in 2024 but remains the only country within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) that has failed to commit to a ban on permits for new coal plants, according to the latest data from Global Energy Monitor. Data in the Global Coal Plant Tracker updated in the third quarter of 2024 show that the licenses for two coal plants — Karaburun and Kirazlıdere — were canceled due to irregularities in the environmental permitting process. Another plant, Malkara, was shelved due to a lack of activity. The developments have left Türkiye with just one coal plant proposal — an expansion of the sizable Afşin-Elbistan power station complex in the city of Kahramanmaraş — a remarkable development after being among the top ten countries with proposed coal-powered capacity for nearly a decade. Since 2015 over 70 gigawatts (GW) of planned coal plant capacity in Türkiye has been called off, one of the highest rates in the world. In comparison, less than 6 GW of coal power capacity was brought online over the same timeframe. Still, Türkiye is the only OECD member that is actively pursuing new coal plants without plans to lessen, or “abate,” the plant’s emissions through the use of carbon capture and storage technology (CCS). Of the thirteen OECD countries with coal plant proposals since 2015, all but Türkiye have pledged to stop building new, unabated coal plants. Proposed coal-fired capacity in the OECD has fallen from 142 proposals totaling 111 GW to five proposals totaling 3 GW since 2015, and none of the five proposals have the necessary permits for construction. All but Türkiye’s proposal include plans to adopt CCS. Coal plant proposals in Türkiye face a myriad of challenges, including strong public opposition and domestic lignite coal that is low-quality and unreliable, leading many plants to use higher-cost imported coal instead. Despite the setbacks, Türkiye has not committed to ending new coal plant proposals. Its recently updated climate pledge, submitted during COP29, makes no mention of coal phaseout. Christine Sheerer, Project Manager for the Global Coal Plant Tracker at Global Energy Monitor, said, “The time is ripe for the country’s leadership to join the rest of the OECD in committing to no new coal and embracing a clean energy future for its people. With only one coal plant proposal remaining in Türkiye, a coal-free future is visible on the horizon.” Contact Christiner Sheerer, Project Manager, Global Coal Plant Tracker, Global Energy MonitorEmail: [email protected]

Coal-Based Steelmaking Plans Jeopardize India’S Net-Zero Target

Global Energy Monitor

Coal-Based Steelmaking Plans Jeopardize India’S Net-Zero TargetIndia’s ongoing investments in new coal-based steelmaking, coupled with a young fleet of emissions-intensive blast furnaces that is set to have its operations extended, jeopardize the country’s Net Zero by 2070 target and risk saddling the country with upwards of US$187 billion in stranded assets, finds a new report from Global Energy Monitor. Data in the Global Steel Plant Tracker show that India has the world’s largest pipeline of steelmaking capacity in development, with projects that have been announced or are in the construction phases totalling around 258 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). Emissions-intensive basic oxygen furnaces total over two-thirds of in-development capacity, and less emissions-intensive electric arc furnaces sit at a marginal 13%. In addition, over 75 mtpa of operating blast furnace capacity was developed in the last two decades, meaning over 43 mtpa is due for relining before 2030. This relatively young fleet of blast furnaces increases the risk of emissions lock-in and poses a challenge to transitioning India’s coal-based steelmaking fleet, as many of these units may still be recovering initial investment costs. The widespread adoption of coal as the reducing agent in direct reduced iron production is another barrier to cutting emissions in India’s steel sector. Of the direct reduced iron capacity tracked by the Global Steel Plant Tracker, more than half uses coal as the reducing agent and is sourced from domestic high-ash coal, which, while less expensive, comes with a higher emissions intensity. India already hosts one of the world’s most emissions-intensive steel sectors. Over 87% of India’s operating ironmaking capacity and 90% of capacity in development is dependent on coal. The steel industry in India currently accounts for over 240 million tonnes of CO2 emissions annually, about 12% of the country’s total carbon emissions, and that number is expected to double by 2030. While India’s short-term solutions to reduce emissions without significant modifications to existing production may lower emissions intensities, India will need to make the grand switch away from coal to fully decarbonize the industry and sustain its production in the long run. Khadeeja Henna, Heavy Industry researcher at Global Energy Monitor, said, “India’s ‘build now, decarbonize later’ approach to achieving a net-zero steel industry will backfire in the long run. While the 2024 roadmap and action plan for greening the steel sector is a positive step forward, transitioning away from coal-based production is more urgent. Substantial investments are needed to build a robust green steel ecosystem, not betting on emerging decarbonization technologies that have yet to prove their mettle.” Contact Henna Khadeeja Heavy Industry researcher, Global Energy Monitor [email protected]

Azerbaijan Promises Wind And Solar Boost But Project Pipeline Stalls As Fossil Buildout Dominates The Region

Global Energy Monitor

Azerbaijan Promises Wind And Solar Boost But Project Pipeline Stalls As Fossil Buildout Dominates The RegionDespite plans for a ramp up of wind and solar projects, COP29 host Azerbaijan has no new renewables on the horizon while continuing to build oil and gas plants, finds a new report from Global Energy Monitor. The Azeri government has suggested a rollout of up to 8 gigawatts (GW) of wind and utility-scale solar capacity by 2030. But data in the Global Integrated Power Tracker show no further projects beyond those expected for completion by 2027. Around 1,000 MW are expected to be brought online by Abu Dhabi’s Masdar, together with Azeri state oil company SOCAR, including the Bilasuvar (445 MW) and Neftchala (315 MW) solar plants, as well as the Absheron-Garadagh wind farm (240 MW). Saudi energy group ACWA leads the Area 1 / Khizi 3 wind farm (240 MW), while three additional solar projects account for a further 440 MW. These 2 GW additions are just sufficient for achieving the country’s stated 30% renewable share by 2030, a target first announced five years ago and only a marginal 10% increase to existing, Soviet-era hydropower capacity. At the same time, the country is set to bring online its largest ever gas power plant by the end of this year, the 1.3 GW Mingecevir gas power station. By global standards, Azerbaijan is a modest fossil fuel producer, pumping less than 1% of the world’s oil and gas. However, fossil rents remain vital to the national economy, accounting for over 90% of all exports and half of the state budget. Gas production, which Azerbaijan uses to power the twelve gas plants that provide over 90% of domestic electricity generation, has also seen a sevenfold ramp-up over the last two decades. The report also shows that all eight countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia — Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan — are developing additional coal, oil, or gas plant capacity at a greater rate than renewables. More than three times as much fossil capacity is under construction in the Caucasus and Central Asia region than from wind and utility-scale solar. Total capacity under construction from wind and utility-scale solar in these countries totals 3.5 GW, less than a third of the 12 GW for projects fueled by coal, oil, or gas. In total, 7.8 GW of coal power capacity is in development — projects that are announced or in the pre-construction and construction phases — though only two projects, totalling 195 MW, are under construction in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is the only country covered in this report that is currently building coal capacity and one of just 22 countries around the world with new coal currently under active construction. The 32 GW of fossil capacity in development eclipses the 26 GW of wind and utility-scale solar capacity across the region. James Norman, Project Manager for the Global Integrated Power Tracker, said, “The integrity of Azerbaijan’s energy transition is in jeopardy. The country’s 2030 target is unambitious, and continuing to build oil and gas projects undoes any progress made elsewhere.” Contact James Norman Project Manager, Global Integrated Power Tracker, Global Energy Monitor [email protected] About the Global Integrated Power Tracker The Global Integrated Power Tracker (GIPT) is a free-to-use Creative Commons database of over 116,000 power units globally, that draws from GEM trackers for coal, gas, oil, hydropower, utility-scale solar, wind, nuclear, bioenergy, and geothermal, as well as energy ownership. Footnoted wiki pages accompany all power facilities included in the GIPT, updated biannually. For more information on the data collection process that underpins GEM’s power sector trackers, please refer to the Global Integrated Power Tracker methodology page.

Indonesia Captive Coal Power On Track To Exceed AustraliaʼS Current Total Coal Power Generation Capacity By 2026

Global Energy Monitor

Indonesia Captive Coal Power On Track To Exceed AustraliaʼS Current Total Coal Power Generation Capacity By 2026JAKARTA, 8 November, 2024 – This month marks two years into the signing of the Indonesia Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), and captive coal power in the country is showing no signs of slowing down. According to a new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and Global Energy Monitor (GEM), between July 2023 and July 2024, Indonesiaʼs coal power capacity saw a 15% increase, totalling 7.2 GW. Of that, 2.6 GW comes from independent power producers (IPPs) and 4.5 GW from captive use, meaning new coal capacity for industry wasn early double that of coal for the national grid. The analysis– an update to CREA and GEMʼs 2023 report–finds that sizable growth in captive coal is expected to continue, with an estimated total of 11.04 GW up to 2026, including all units in the construction, pre-permitted, and announced phases. Combined with the 132 units of operational captive coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) totaling 15.2 GW, proposals would put total captive coal capacity at 26.24 GW, which is greater than the total coal plant capacity of all of Australia in 2023and would put captive in the largest share of Indonesiaʼs coal generation outside of PLN and IPPs, at nearly 40%. Captive coal power in Indonesia is mainly dedicated to powering a select range of energy-intensive industries, with metals such as nickel and aluminium holding major shares, followed by pulp and paper, chemicals, cement, and textiles. Major additions of CFPPs in the pipeline are attributed to Indonesiaʼs metals processing industry, such as nickel. While nickel is a critical metal for EVs and batteries, captive coal plants are among the most carbon-intensive routes to meet this demand. The health and economic impacts of unchecked CFPP development in Indonesia would be catastrophic. Analysis on nickel industrial complexes located in Central and Southeast Sulawesi and North Maluku reveals that under the current growth pathway and without strengthened emission and environmental standards, exposure to air pollution emitted from coal-based smelting processes and associated captive coal power plants would lead to nearly 5,000 deaths in 2030 and cause IDR 56 trillion (USD 3.42 billion) in economic burden. Meanwhile, exclusion of captive CFPP retirement from a 2040 coal phase-out target would cause an additional 27,000 deaths and IDR 330 trillion (USD 20 billion) of economic burden from cumulative health impacts nationwide. However, showing a proactive stance on global climate partnerships like JETP and blessed with abundant renewables potential, Indonesia holds the capability to pivot from captive coal and become a leader in industrial decarbonisation. Whatʼs more, the financial benefits of renewables clearly outweigh those of remaining reliant on coal– by 2025, solar-storage levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in Indonesia with preferential financing is projected to be USD 0.01 cents per kWh cheaper than coal. In the next decade, pricing will be even better, with the cost difference anticipated to be over USD0.03 cents perk Wh. In anticipation of the JETP Secretariatʼs release of Indonesiaʼs captive power landscape mapping, national and global stakeholders will be presented with a collective opportunity to catalyse decarbonisation efforts. Inclusion of captive CFPP retirement in Indonesiaʼs national plan would not only support the governmentʼs energy transition and climate targets, but would also garner interest for clean energy investments. Katherine Hasan, Analyst at CREA: “Indonesiaʼs willingness and ability to meet global climate commitments is manifest in the JETP as well as the recent release of the Second Nationally Determined Contribution (SNDC) draft. However, the efficacy of these actions is being threatened by an ever-expanding coal capacity within our nationʼs core industries. Setting a clear and ambitious schedule for early CFPP retirement and renewables integration would not only support the governmentʼs climate targets, but also help to attract the clean energy investments Indonesia needs to secure a strategic position in the global RE supply chain.” Lucy Hummer, Senior Researcher at Global Energy Monitor: “Addressing the role of coal in Indonesiaʼs energy transition cannot be limited to the power sector. It is critical to set out a clear pathway for all captive power facilities. As a leading supplier of critical minerals for the global clean energy supply chain, Indonesia must leverage its national plan and retire captive coal-fired power plants to decarbonise energy intensive industries like nickel, a process that requires both investment and strong governance.” Katherine Hasan, Analyst, CREA; [email protected] Lucy Hummer, Senior Researcher, Global Energy Monitor[email protected] About Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) CREA is an independent research organisation focused on revealing the trends, causes, and health impacts, as well as the solutions to air pollution. We use scientific data, research and evidence to support the efforts of governments, companies and campaigning organisations worldwide in their efforts to move towards clean energy and clean air. www.energyandcleanair.org About Global Energy Monitor Global Energy Monitor (GEM) develops and shares information in support of the worldwide movement for clean energy. By studying the evolving international energy landscape, and creating databases, reports, and interactive tools that enhance understanding, GEM seeks to build an open guide to the world’s energy system.

Less Than Half Of Top 50 Steel Producers Have A Net Zero Target

Global Energy Monitor

Less Than Half Of Top 50 Steel Producers Have A Net Zero TargetKey points Less than half of the world’s top steel producers have targets to reach net zero emissions by midcentury, and even fewer track the full scope of emissions produced by their business, jeopardizing the sector’s ability to meet long-term climate aims, finds a new report from Global Energy Monitor and the Leadership Group for Industry Transition, hosted at the Stockholm Environment Institute. The analysis of the top 50 steel producers — which rely more heavily on higher emissions steelmaking technologies than the global industry average and are responsible for more than 60% of the sector’s emissions — follows the latest production ranking provided by the World Steel Association. The steel sector accounts for an estimated 7–9% of direct global greenhouse gas emissions, and the International Energy Agency has said that CO2 emissions from heavy industries need to drop 93% in order to reach net zero emissions by 2050. As of September 2024, half of the top 50 steel producers still lack a net zero target: Sixteen companies have not stated a net zero target in their public reporting, and nine companies have provided no information on climate targets at all. Five companies have targets to reach net zero after 2050. Seventeen companies have set a 2030 emissions reduction goal, three fewer top 50 producers than in the 2023 update. Two of these companies removed their 2030 goals, while one reduction is due to the shift in rankings of the top 50 steel producers. Conversely, ten companies have now established milestones between 2030 and 2040, an increase of five companies compared to 2023. Only fifteen of the top 50 steel producers have specified the emission scopes they plan to address in order to reach their net zero targets. Scope 1 emissions refer to those resulting directly from the production process, Scope 2 emissions refer to those from purchased electricity and steam, and Scope 3 are indirect emissions resulting from supply chain activities like coal mining and shipping. Just four companies have included measures to address Scopes 1, 2, and 3 in their plans. Three of these companies aim to achieve net zero by 2050, while one plans to reach this goal before 2050. Caitlin Swalec, Program Director for Heavy Industry, Global Energy Monitor, said, “The increase in target reporting among the top 50 steel producers is a positive sign of progress, yet it falls short of what is needed to reach net zero by midcentury. The top 50 steel firms can set an example of leadership as not only steel producers, but emissions reducers through target setting and collective action to reach net zero 2050.” Eileen Torres Morales, Analyst, Leadership Group for Industry Transition, said, “Greater transparency from steel producers is essential to demonstrate commitment to decarbonisation. While some companies have made initial progress, clearer plans are needed from the majority to reach net zero by 2050, including plans for specific emission scopes reductions. Establishing intermediate targets, tracking progress, and sharing updates publicly can motivate the sector to accelerate its transition towards net zero.” Contacts Caitlin Swalec, Program Director, Heavy Industry, Global Energy Monitor Email: [email protected] Eileen Torres-Morales, Research Associate at SEI, Analyst for the Leadership Group for Industry Transition Email: [email protected] About Leadership Group for Industry Transition (LeadIT) The Leadership Group for Industry Transition (LeadIT) gathers countries and companies that are committed to action to achieve the Paris Agreement. It was launched by the governments of Sweden and India at the UN Climate Action Summit in September 2019 with support from the World Economic Forum. In recognition of the progress made by LeadIT, India and Sweden reaffirmed their commitment to its mission and established a new work pillar for LeadIT with a focus on technology transfer and codevelopment, and a dedicated industry transition platform (ITP) between the two countries. The LeadIT Secretariat is hosted by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and manages the work of the Leadership Group. Follow LeadIT and the Green Steel Tracker at www.industrytransition.org and on LinkedIn. About The Global Steel Plant Tracker The Global Steel Plant Tracker (GSPT) provides information on global crude iron and steel production plants and includes every plant currently operating at a capacity of 0.5 million tonnes per year (mtpa) or more of crude iron or steel. The GSPT also includes all plants meeting the 0.5 mtpa threshold that have been proposed or are under construction since 2017 or retired or mothballed since 2020. About The Global Blast Furnace Tracker The Global Blast Furnace Tracker (GBFT) is a worldwide dataset of blast furnace units. It tracks each of the furnaces at iron and steel plants in GEM’s Global Steel Plant Tracker (GSPT) and includes unit-level capacities, key dates, and statuses for each furnace. Relining data, including dates and costs, are also tracked for each furnace where available.

For The First Time, Fossil Fuels In Brics Countries To Drop Below Half Of Installed Power Capacity

Global Energy Monitor

For The First Time, Fossil Fuels In Brics Countries To Drop Below Half Of Installed Power CapacityKey points Fossil capacity is set to drop below half of the power capacity mix in the BRICS bloc for the first time ever this year, signaling an important milestone in the clean energy transition for countries that still host the vast majority of the world’s coal power, finds a new report from Global Energy Monitor. An analysis of data in the Global Integrated Power Tracker shows 72 gigawatts (GW) of fossil capacity in the BRICS scheduled to come online in 2024. Even in the unlikely case that a further 88 GW under construction without a known target start date also comes online, this total would still not exceed non-fossil additions already built in 2024: 190 GW of non-fossil capacity additions have already come online this year in China, India, and Brazil alone. This would bring the total non-fossil capacity operating in the BRICS to 2,289 GW versus at most 2,245 GW fossil capacity. For comparison, the European Union reached 50% non-fossil share at the start of the 2010s, and the G7 hit parity last year. Capacity refers to the maximum amount of electricity that can be produced at any one time, and generation is the amount of electricity that is actually generated over a period of time. In recent years, the share of fossil fuels has been on the decline in most BRICS countries, with China leading the group, as its share of fossil-fueled capacity has fallen twice that of other BRICS countries over the last five years. This sea change is thanks in part to the vast pipeline of wind and utility-scale solar capacity in development — projects that have been announced or are in the pre-construction and construction phases — which now outpaces fossils by two to one. Wind and utility-scale solar projects in development total 1,550 GW across the BRICS group. Adding in-development hydropower to this figure sees the capacity for in-development fossil-fueled projects in the BRICS outnumbered by nearly three to one. The impressive pace of non-fossil additions also means that BRICS countries have enough renewables projects in development to nearly triple such capacity by 2030. The target to triple total global renewables capacity by 2030, agreed at COP28, is considered one of the most important levers for reducing emissions and keeping the 1.5 degree-aligned pathway alive. If the 326 GW of wind and utility-scale solar capacity additions in 2023 continued to 2030, the BRICS group would see total renewable capacity increase by more than two and a half times. Furthermore, the sum of the BRICS’ in-development renewables projects due for completion by 2030 is 2,276 GW, or around 95% of the additional utility-scale renewable capacity estimated as necessary to achieve the global tripling target. Despite fossil-fueled power capacity losing ground in the BRICS’ power mix, virtually all members are building additional coal, oil, or gas plants. GEM data show all BRICS group countries, save Ethiopia, with fossil-fueled power projects in development. If built, fossil fuels projects in development would increase operating coal and oil and gas capacity in the BRICS groups by 36% and 53%, respectively. James Norman, Project Manager for the Global Integrated Power Tracker, said, “The BRICS bloc is at a watershed moment. The clean energy transition really is happening everywhere. Still BRICSs are some of the only countries in the world planning new coal projects, which would undermine the impressive progress to date in cleaning up their energy systems.” Contacts James Norman Project Manager, Global Integrated Power Tracker, Global Energy Monitor [email protected] About the Global Integrated Power Tracker The Global Integrated Power Tracker (GIPT) is a free-to-use Creative Commons database of over 116,000 power units globally, that draws from GEM trackers for coal, gas, oil, hydropower, utility-scale solar, wind, nuclear, bioenergy, and geothermal, as well as energy ownership. Footnoted wiki pages accompany all power facilities included in the GIPT, updated biannually. For more information on the data collection process that underpins GEM’s power sector trackers, please refer to the Global Integrated Power Tracker methodology page.

Us$123 Billion Lng Build-Out Risks Derailing Energy Transition In Latin America

Global Energy Monitor

Us$123 Billion Lng Build-Out Risks Derailing Energy Transition In Latin AmericaKey points A rash of new LNG terminals and gas pipelines threatens to saddle Latin America with costly stranded assets and exposure to energy price swings, in spite of the region’s vast renewables potential, finds a report from Global Energy Monitor. Data in the Global Gas Infrastructure Tracker show planned LNG export and import terminals in the region totalling an estimated US$123.6 billion in new investments, much of which are concentrated in three countries: Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil. New LNG export projects have a high likelihood of becoming stranded assets if countries meet their own climate objectives, and recent geopolitical events, including Russia’s war in Ukraine, have demonstrated the volatility and unreliability of LNG imports. All of these expansions to the region’s role in the LNG economy are planned despite the International Energy Agency’s warning that the global LNG trade should peak in the middle of this decade for the world to meet its climate goal of limiting global warming to 1.5℃. Latin America’s LNG buildout faces significant barriers, however, and is by no means certain to advance. Given the region’s abundant renewable resources and its progress planning new renewable energy projects, countries could avoid sinking investment into the global LNG boom and focus on developing clean energy. Robert Rozansky, Global LNG Analyst at Global Energy Monitor, said “Latin America already has one of the cleanest electricity mixes in the world, so rushing headlong into the LNG economy would be a mistake. The silver lining is that many projects are still in the planning stages, so the region has an opportunity to sidestep the global LNG boom and avoid weighing down economies with risky fossil fuel investments. The smarter bet is to double down on the region’s vast wind and solar potential.” Contacts Robert Rozansky Project Manager, Global LNG Analyst, Global Energy Monitor [email protected] Gregor Clark Project Manager, Latin America Energy Portal, Global Energy Monitor [email protected] About the Global Gas Infrastructure Tracker The Global Gas Infrastructure Tracker (GGIT) is an information resource on natural gas transmission pipeline projects and liquefied natural gas (LNG) import and export terminals. The internal GGIT database and wiki pages are updated continuously throughout the year, and an annual release is published and distributed with data summary tables. The data are released under a creative commons license and can be downloaded here. About the Portal Energético para América Latina (Latin America Energy Portal) GEM’s Latin America Energy Portal offers a region-wide perspective on energy infrastructure in Latin America and the Caribbean, through interactive maps and thousands of wiki pages. The Portal synthesizes GEM’s research on nearly 5,000 projects throughout the region, including coal- and gas-fired power plants, oil and gas pipelines, oil and gas extraction sites, LNG terminals, solar farms, wind farms, coal terminals, coal mines and steel plants that meet a predetermined size threshold.

Bioenergy Capacity Skyrockets Sevenfold In Japan And South Korea Despite Concerns About Sustainability And Profitability

Global Energy Monitor

Bioenergy Capacity Skyrockets Sevenfold In Japan And South Korea Despite Concerns About Sustainability And ProfitabilityWoody biomass power stations are being used to meet renewable energy goals in Japan and South Korea despite their lack of financial viability and maintenance of the status quo for emissions, according to a new report from Global Energy Monitor. Data in the Global Bioenergy Power Tracker show that Japan has 3.8 gigawatts (GW) of woody bioenergy capacity projected across 59 units by 2026 and South Korea has 1.46 GW projected across 32 units by the same year — an increase of 658% in the last ten years. Japan and South Korea also have 16.7 GW of capacity across 55 units that co-fire bioenergy with coal being the primary fuel, according to data in the Global Coal Plant Tracker. This is equivalent to 17.4 per cent of the total operating capacity in those countries. Through its Renewable Energy Certificates (REC) in South Korea and the Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) program in Japan, dedicated woody biomass burning units receive renewable subsidies based on the false premise that they are carbon neutral. But supply chain emissions — including logging, transportation to a processing plant, processing into wood chips or pellets, and additional transportation to the power plant — remain a serious concern. Those emissions are in addition to the carbon emissions from woody biomass itself, which can be 30% higher than coal burning emissions. Woody biomass must be burned in higher volumes than fossil fuels because of its lower energy density, and the emissions increase as the volume combusted grows. The continued subsidies also crowd out funding for truly renewable sources of energy like wind and solar and keep coal plants online. With a carbon debt payback period estimated between 44 and 104 years, both Japan and South Korea are continuing to invest in an energy which is not carbon neutral when burning woody biomass. While South Korea has a 2050 coal phaseout date and Japan has yet to commit to a date, utilizing biomass co-firing could serve to lengthen the tail of coal burning in the countries. Sophia Bauer, Project Manager for the Global Bioenergy Power Tracker, said, “The bioenergy buildout is a massive distraction from funding for real solutions to drive a clean energy transition in Japan and South Korea. Not only does burning biomass not bring the intended emissions reductions, it is also a safety hazard for communities and workers, as the threat of fires at power plants is all too well known.” Contact Sophia Bauer, Project Manager, Global Bioenergy Power Tracker, Global Energy Monitor Email: [email protected] About the Global Bioenergy Power Tracker The Global Bioenergy Power Tracker (GBPT) is a worldwide dataset of utility-scale bioenergy power facilities. It includes bioenergy units with capacities of 30 megawatts (MW) or more. The tracker provides separate data on each of the multiple facilities that typically exist at a particular location. The tracker includes every bioenergy unit at the 30 MW capacity threshold for operating, announced, pre-construction and in-construction power station units. In some cases, units may combust multiple fuel sources in addition to bioenergy.

After Brief Slowdown, China Ramps Up Coal Output

Global Energy Monitor

After Brief Slowdown, China Ramps Up Coal OutputKey points Global coal output is on the rise again after a short downturn in 2020, with China now supplying more than half the world’s total and responsible for nearly half of all new proposals, posing a significant threat to the country’s dual-carbon goals, according to a new report from Global Energy Monitor. Data in the Global Coal Mine Tracker show that China has a proposed capacity of 1,155 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa), primarily from projects with a designed capacity of at least 1 Mtpa, representing nearly double Australia’s total coal production from similarly sized mines. GEM data show that during the first three years of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), approximately 614 million tonnes of coal were in different stages of development, more than the annual output of Australia. When combined with previously proposed projects and a lowered capacity threshold to 0.6 Mtpa, China is now developing a total of 1,280 Mtpa of coal capacity across fourteen provinces, more than half the global pipeline. If materialized, and without robust mitigation measures, this massive expansion will significantly increase methane emissions. GEM revealed that China’s operating coal mines emit a staggering 52,726 MCM of methane annually, equivalent to approximately 35 Mt of methane released each year. This figure is nearly twice the emissions estimated by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in their Global Methane Tracker, which reported that China’s coal mining sector was responsible for about 20 Mt of methane emissions in 2023. The significance of China’s coal mine emissions becomes even more apparent when compared to emissions from coal mines of similar size in other coal-producing countries. China’s operating coal mine methane emissions account for roughly 70% of the global total for coal mine methane emissions from operating mines of similar size. With substantial coal mine expansion planned, China is poised to become an even larger emitter of global coal mine methane emissions. If all proposed projects materialize, another 14,956 MCM (10 Mt) of methane will be emitted annually, potentially accounting for nearly 75% of projected methane releases from proposed mines worldwide. The surge in new production starkly contrasts with China’s dual carbon neutrality targets. The potential for increased methane emissions from these new mines, coupled with the challenge of abandoned coal mine methane as China accelerates the closure of small-scale and inefficient operations, poses significant risks to China’s climate goals. Dorothy Mei, Project Manager for the Global Coal Mine Tracker at Global Energy Monitor, said, “China’s coal industry is at a pivotal juncture. While the government is after energy security with a heavy reliance on coal, the nation is also committed to expanding renewable energy. Recent surges in coal production, prompted by supply concerns, may be curtailed by ongoing efforts to optimize the industry and reduce excess capacity.” Contact Dorothy Mei, Project Manager, Global Coal Mine Tracker, Global Energy Monitor Email: [email protected] About the Global Coal Mine Tracker The Global Coal Mine Tracker is a worldwide dataset of coal mines and proposed projects. The tracker provides asset-level details on ownership structure, development stage and status, coal type, capacity, production, workforce size, reserves and resources, methane emissions, geolocation, and over 30 other categories. The most recent release of this data in April 2024 includes operating mines producing 1 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) or more, with smaller mines included at discretion. The tracker also includes proposed coal mines and mine expansions with various designed capacities.

Two-Thirds Of Turbines For New Gas Plants Built By Just Three Companies

Global Energy Monitor

Two-Thirds Of Turbines For New Gas Plants Built By Just Three CompaniesGE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Power dominate the gas turbine market with nearly two-thirds of the world’s capacity under construction, signaling a big bet on the future of hydrogen in the energy transition, despite questions about the technology’s suitability for decarbonization, according to new data from Global Energy Monitor. Data in the Global Oil and Gas Plants Tracker show 175 gigawatts (GW) of gas turbine capacity under construction, and GE Vernova leads the global market with almost 55 GW. Much of this capacity is located in Asia, where GE Vernova has a 38% share of Asia’s turbine market, followed by Mitsubishi with 17%, and then Siemens Energy at 16%. While gas power plants can use a variety of technologies, plants that use turbines account for the majority of capacity and are increasingly viewed as capable of blending hydrogen to reduce emissions of fossil gas power. Turbine manufacturers have focused their research on developing advanced turbines that can support flexible power generation and are capable of burning hydrogen, seeking to become linchpins of the energy transition. However, a lack of hydrogen supply, pipeline infrastructure, and storage capacity for hydrogen are significant and costly barriers to overcome. In addition, due to its lower energy content, even using green hydrogen in power production provides little emissions benefit until it is blended at high levels. For example, a 30% hydrogen blend by volume achieves a 12% reduction in CO2 emissions and a 75% hydrogen blend only reaches a 50% emissions decrease. According to GEM data, roughly half of turbines in gas-fired plants under construction (82 GW) are capable of blending up to 50% hydrogen, indicating that emissions reductions from the deployment of this technology may not be as effective as hoped for. Investments in hydrogen for the energy sector may also impinge on funding for renewables, which are widely viewed as more effective and efficient in decarbonizing the energy sector. Jenny Martos, Project Manager for the Global Oil and Gas Plants Tracker at Global Energy Monitor, said, “Gas turbine manufacturers are gambling on gas remaining a significant part of the future energy mix by continuing to invest in hydrogen technology. But they’ve misread the market before and may once again be making a bad bet.” Contact Jenny Martos, Project Manager, Global Oil and Gas Plants Tracker, Global Energy Monitor Global Energy Monitor Email: [email protected] About the Global Oil and Gas Plants Tracker The Global Oil and Gas Plant Tracker (GOGPT) is a worldwide dataset of oil and gas-fired power plants. It includes units with capacities of 50 megawatts (MW) or more (20 MW or more in the European Union and the United Kingdom). For internal combustion units, or those units that have multiple identically sized engines, the 50 MW capacity unit threshold applies to the total capacity of the set of engines. The GOGPT catalogs every oil and gas power plant at this capacity threshold of any status, including operating, announced, pre-construction, construction, shelved, cancelled, mothballed, or retired.

Southeast Asian Coal Power Plants Old Enough For Coal To Clean Transition

Global Energy Monitor

Southeast Asian Coal Power Plants Old Enough For Coal To Clean TransitionNew analysis reveals the average age of Southeast Asian coal power plants will be 28 years by 2040, making coal to clean transition feasible The average age of a coal power plant in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will be 28 years by 2040, according to a new analysis by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), meaning it can be profitably retired under the right policy conditions before the year in which developing countries should phase out coal. The analysis challenges previously held assumptions that coal power fleets in ASEAN countries are too young to be retired, with this age near the current global average retirement age of 36. The findings of the report highlight ASEAN members’ ability to transition away from coal power generation by 2040, as recommended by the International Energy Agency as well as Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change modelling to keep global warming below 1.5°C. “Those calling for repowering or retrofitting existing coal power plants to co-fire with biomass or ammonia have no justification to do so, as the ‘young Southeast Asian coal fleet’ will soon be a fiction. Despite arguments to the contrary, ASEAN coal plants will be old enough to be retired by 2040,” said Christine Shearer, Project Manager of GEM’s Global Coal Plant Tracker. “Energy transition from coal to clean is a complex process, but our analysis shows that the age of Southeast Asian coal plants as a barrier is simply a misconception.” GEM’s analysis challenges conclusions made by the ASEAN Center for Energy and World Bank implying that southeast Asian coal power plants are too young to retire and therefore must be repurposed by retrofitting carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology or by repowering them to run on biomass or ammonia. “ASEAN countries should stop building new coal power plants and avoid further investment in repowering existing coal power plants. Any further developments either increasing coal capacity or expanding the life of existing coal power plants will only make energy transition more difficult,” added Lucy Hummer, a Researcher at Global Energy Monitor. ASEAN countries have about 15 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity in pre-construction phases and another 15 GW under construction. It is essential for ASEAN countries to cancel new coal power plant projects on an urgent basis in order to stop exasperating an already challenging situation. If ASEAN countries stop expanding coal capacity, less than 20 GW of its coal power capacity will be under 20 years of age by 2040. Under the right policy conditions, these plants could meet the criteria for a profitable transition to renewable energy. Older coal power plants are usually cheaper to retire since they would have recouped investment costs. However, a recent IEEFA analysis authored by Paul Jacobson highlights coal power plants as young as 15 years in age could be profitably retired as early as 2030-2035, under the right policy and financing framework. The report indicates that there could be as many as 800 coal-fired units with the right conditions to make this switch, many of which are in Southeast Asia. “My report provides evidence that coal power plants 15 years in age or older could be profitably retired as early as 2030-2035, under the right policy and financing framework. This requires effort to be put into developing and structuring such a phase out with agreements that replace private coal PPAs with new renewable energy PPAs. Analysis indicates that the costs of such a transition (including coal phaseout, new renewables construction, storage capacity construction, and grid upgrades) would NOT increase wholesale power prices, should policy and other conditions be suitable,” said Paul Jacobson, author of the IEEFA report. Age of coal plants in the ASEAN region by 2040

Brazil’S Vast Renewables Can Power Steel Decarbonization

Global Energy Monitor

Brazil’S Vast Renewables Can Power Steel DecarbonizationBrazil is well-positioned to become a global green iron and steelmaking leader thanks to its abundant renewable electricity and high-quality iron ore reserves, finds a new report from Global Energy Monitor. While three-quarters of the country’s steelmaking currently relies on coal-based capacity and many of the traditional methods for decarbonizing the sector face constraints, the country’s vast renewables can feed the production of large-scale green hydrogen required to power the low-emissions direct reduced iron (DRI) route, allowing Brazil to develop a value-added green iron export industry even as it reduces emissions from its domestic steel sector. Production of green hydrogen demands huge amounts of renewable energy, a sector where Brazil has already established global leadership. According to data from GEM’s Global Integrated Power Tracker, Brazil ranks second globally in operating hydropower and bioenergy capacity, seventh globally in operating utility-scale wind capacity, and ninth in operating utility-scale solar capacity. Production of green hydrogen demands huge amounts of renewable energy, a sector where Brazil has already established global leadership. According to data from GEM’s Global Integrated Power Tracker, Brazil ranks second globally in operating hydropower and bioenergy capacity, seventh globally in operating utility-scale wind capacity, and ninth in operating utility-scale solar capacity. Future prospects for wind and solar are even more impressive. GEM data show that Brazil has 180 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale wind farms in announced, pre-construction, or construction status, placing the country third globally behind China and Australia. Brazil’s 139 GW of prospective utility-scale solar farms ranks second globally, trailing only China. Brazil has initiated a number of moves to expand green hydrogen capacity that could boost lower-emissions DRI production. It launched a national hydrogen program in 2021, and in August 2024, President Lula signed into law a legal framework for low-carbon hydrogen production. The country’s Ministry of Mines and Energy estimates that Brazil can produce 1.8 gigatonnes of low-carbon hydrogen annually at a lower cost than any other nation. Brazil’s Northeast is especially fertile ground for green hydrogen, given the region’s exceptional wind and solar potential. In April 2024, the Brazilian government awarded contracts for nearly 4,500 kilometers of new transmission lines and substations to bolster electricity distribution between the Northeast and the industrial Southeast. Brazil is also a top producer and exporter of iron ore, surpassed only by Australia. Iron ore is an important component in iron and steelmaking, and Brazil boasts some of the highest quality iron ore anywhere on earth, with iron content ranging from 60% to 67%. High-quality ore is especially critical for the lower-emissions green hydrogen-based DRI production method. Harnessing this vast renewables potential and quality iron may present Brazil’s most promising path to steel decarbonization, as more traditional approaches face limitations. Recent investments in Brazil’s largest, most emissions-intensive coal-based blast furnaces will likely delay their retirement, while limited and volatile scrap supply presents an impediment to the development of lower-emissions electric arc furnaces (EAF). While several smaller Brazilian steel plants have adopted biochar as a replacement for coal in blast furnaces, potentially resulting in reduced greenhouse gas emissions, the amount of coal that can be substituted is limited — and partial coal replacement still ultimately equals coal dependence. The World Economic Forum estimates that emissions from Brazil’s steel industry could rise nearly a third by 2050 without proactive moves to boost demand and supply of green iron and steel. However, the country could take advantage of its strengths to embark on a low-emissions overhaul. Gregor Clark, Project Manager for the Portal Energético para América Latina with Global Energy Monitor, said, “The blueprint for Brazil to become a leader in green steel is there, and what better way to showcase this potential than as host of next year’s UN climate conference. Of course the challenges to get there are significant. Brazil will need policies to support a successful green iron and steel industry that uses a variety of subsidies, blended finance and carbon markets. Many of these depend on international cooperation and support from outside actors.” Contact Gregor Clark, Project Manager, Portal Energético para América Latina Global Energy Monitor Email: [email protected] About the Global Steel Plant Tracker and Global Blast Furnace Tracker Since 2021, GEM has provided a publicly-accessible database that identifies, maps, and records plant-level details such as plant ownership, production capacity, production process/technology, and geolocation for all crude iron and steel plants with capacity of 0.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) or greater, covering over 92% of global capacity. In 2023, GEM added unit-level data on the global blast furnace fleet, providing critical detail on the most emissions-intensive part of the steelmaking process. GEM’s datasets provide a robust view of the current and developing global iron and steel plant fleet, and the opportunity to examine the status of the iron and steel sector compared to global decarbonization roadmaps and corporate and country level net zero pledges.