The UK could unlock £22.55 billion of economic benefits by 2035 if it were to accelerate the decarbonisation of residential heating, according to a new report from Heat Pump Association UK (HPA UK).

The report, dubbed

From Carbon to Competitiveness: The UK Opportunity Associated with Decarbonising Residential Heating

, comes amid the backdrop of the recently-released Warm Homes Plan. That plan pledged new money towards continued financing towards heat pumps,

as well as new funding for solar and batteries

, but stopped short of banning gas boilers – which could impact sales of heat pumps.

Despite not receiving the boost that could help supercharge the installation of heat pumps, HPA UK is keen to stress that installing the technology could have huge economic benefits – on top of the already well-established decarbonisation benefits. That’s because, according to its report, electrifying home heating – “primarily through hydronic heat pumps” – could increase total Gross Value Added (GVA) from residential heating from £12.2 billion today to £22.5 billion by 2035, which it describes as an 85% rise from 2025.

Given the UK Government’s current obsession with unlocking growth, HPA UK argues that residential heat decarbonisation should be treated not just as a climate requirement, but as an industrial strategy opportunity spanning manufacturing, installation and services.

HPA UK’s headline claim is the scale of potential growth tied to heat pump deployment. It says heat pump manufacturing, installation and use was already worth £1.0bn to the UK economy in 2025, but could rise to £15.0bn by 2035 if deployment accelerates.

On jobs, the report estimates heat pump-related employment could grow by more than 110,000 full-time equivalent roles by 2035, accounting for 82% of jobs in the residential heating sector.

The analysis also makes a domestic manufacturing case. It suggests UK manufacturing capacity could expand by between 15-fold and 27-fold by 2035, with “further potential through exports” if supply chains scale in parallel with demand.

On energy security, the report claims gas demand could fall by 63 TWh between 2025 and 2035 – which it frames as ‘enough energy to run the London Underground for 75 years’.

The modelling also points to environmental and health-related impacts. HPA UK says a reduction in fossil fuel boilers could contribute to a projected 6% reduction in overall UK air pollution by 2035. On carbon, it estimates annual abatement from heat pump rollout could reach 17 MtCO₂e by 2035 – equivalent to 20 million passenger flights from London to New York.

Charlotte Lee, HPA UK’s Chief Executive, noted, “Today’s findings show that decarbonising residential heating should not be viewed as a cost burden, but a major economic opportunity. Heat pumps can drive billions of pounds in growth, support tens of thousands of skilled jobs across the country and strengthen the UK’s energy security by reducing reliance on imported gas. With the right long term policy clarity, the UK can build a world-leading heat pump industry, grow our domestic manufacturing, and deliver cleaner, healthier homes for millions of residents.”

While the economic arguments could easily be a huge net positive for the UK Government, some in the industry fear that it’s not legislators that need convincing – but consumers.

The high cost of electricity has regularly been cited as one of the key reasons many are reluctant to adopt the technology

, although if the Warm Homes Plan enables many more households to generate their own cheap, clean electricity, it could easily have a knock on impact in driving more people towards heat pumps as they look to ditch the gas bill.