Eni, Fincantieri And Rina Assess Alternative Fuel Trajectories

Eni, Fincantieri and RINA have produced a new report: “Sustainable Maritime Transport Outlook” which is focused on the maritime sector and developed with the technical support of Bain & Company Italy.

The study aims to contribute to accelerating the decarbonization of the maritime transport sector, in line with the Net Zero target for 2050. It forms part of the broader framework of the agreement signed on March 25, 2024, by Eni, Fincantieri and RINA, with the shared goal of establishing a global observatory to monitor and assess the medium-to long-term evolution of sustainable decarbonization solutions for the sector.

The study provides, for the first time, a global overview of viable decarbonization options tailored to different vessel segments and regions worldwide. It also integrates volume assessments with a comprehensive analysis of cost implications for shipowners and the investment requirements across the logistics and port infrastructure chain. In the short term, the energy carriers most capable of reducing CO₂ emissions include:

• LNG – a fossil fuel with lower carbon intensity, though it requires significant infrastructure investments for storage, handling and bunkering at ports.

• Biofuels – including HVO, which can be used in its pure form without the need for infrastructure upgrades, and FAME which faces significant limitations when used in pure form.

Over the long term, biofuels — including the emergence of Bio-LNG and biomethanol — are expected to remain the primary solution for the merchant shipping sector.

Synthetic fuels derived from green hydrogen, along with hydrogen itself, are also likely to gain traction in specific applications — such as low- and medium-power cruise ships — as their competitiveness improves and supply chains continue to develop.

Pierluigi Serlenga, Managing Partner Italy at Bain & Company, added: “Industry stakeholders and investors need a clear vision to guide technological choices and investment strategies. With this first edition of the Observatory, we’ve delivered a valuable tool to help interpret the evolution of the fuel mix in both the short and long term. Starting around 2040, new solutions will gradually be adopted on specific routes and use cases, complementing biofuels and LNG — although the latter will need to come from bio-based sources. It’s therefore critical to develop a roadmap for upgrading Italy’s port infrastructure to ensure it remains competitive and central to future low-emission maritime routes. We estimate that by 2050, around €24 billion in investments will be needed across the European port system — a significant share of which represents a real business opportunity for the Italian maritime value chain.”

The adoption of new technologies and alternative fuels will depend on a complex mix of factors, including national and regional energy strategies, consumer behavior, macroeconomic trends, geopolitical developments, supply chain risks, and the pace of technological advancement.

The Outlook presents three future scenarios, each based on varying levels of decarbonization ambition, technological progress, and availability of fuels and infrastructure. Projections suggest that decarbonization will advance more rapidly in the EU and the United States, while fossil fuels and LNG will continue to dominate in the Asia-Pacific region and other parts of the world — making up approximately 70% of the energy mix by 2050.

Between 2030 and 2040, Europe and North America are expected to see a major shift from fossil fuels to HVO biofuels — which will serve as the cornerstone of the transition — and to LNG, including its bio-derived form. HVO is already available at key ports and offers a degree of cost resilience, while LNG remains economically competitive in the near term, though it will face increasing regulatory penalties from 2040 onward.

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, the industry will also need to explore new alternative fuels, such as synthetic fuels produced from green hydrogen. However, these are not expected to become cost-competitive with fossil fuels until after 2040.

In the long term, biofuels derived from renewable feedstocks and synthetic fuels will be essential for decarbonizing medium- and long-range merchant vessels. For short-range ships, bioenergy solutions will be sufficient. In the cruise segment, small to mid-sized vessels (luxury and exploration classes) are expected to adopt both HVO biofuels and synthetic fuels, while larger vessels (upper premium and contemporary classes) will rely more heavily on bioenergy sources such as HVO, bio-LNG and biomethanol.

Successfully managing this transition will require significant long-term investment in port infrastructure to accommodate the supply and distribution of alternative fuels.

Within the European Union alone, investments of up to €24 billion are projected. In terms of infrastructure needs, HVO biofuels and LNG will require relatively limited investment (around 15%), due to their compatibility with existing systems. In contrast, synthetic fuels will demand substantial investment (around 85%), as the necessary infrastructure has yet to be developed.