Russian Crude Exports Hit Four-Month High, But Buyers Under Us Scrutiny

in Freight News

03/04/2025

Seaborne Russian crude exports reached a four-month high in March, according to ship-tracking data, but when those barrels will reach end-buyers remains to be seen amid US threats.

Preliminary figures from S&P Global Commodities at Sea(opens in a new tab) show Russian crude liftings amounted to roughly 3.51 million b/d in March, up from 3.16 million b/d in February and the highest since November 2024.

The robust exports came as March’s average price for Russia’s flagship export grade, Urals, was assessed by Platts down 4.7% month over month at $57.421/b on a free-on-board Primorsk basis, the lowest since June 2023.

G7 countries and their allies set the price cap for Russian crude at $60/b, so the Urals weakness suggested tanker operators could generally trade in Russia without worries over Western sanctions.

The OPEC+ producer exported 1.58 million b/d to India, the top buyer of Russian oil, in March, slightly down from 1.69 million b/d in February, while exports to China dropped to 933,000 b/d from 1.06 million b/d.

But the figures could be revised upwards later as the destinations of 373,000 b/d of Russian exports last month are unknown as of April 1, according to CAS.

While tanker operators usually would provide more indication on where their ships are sailing to later in the month, Russia has strong incentives to disguise its cargo flows as its buyers could draw the ire of Washington.

On March 30, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose within a month a 25%-50% secondary tariff on countries that import Russian oil if President Vladimir Putin blocks a deal to end the conflict in Ukraine.

“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault … I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” Trump told NBC news.

Syrian demand

Moreover, CAS data shows 225,000 b/d of Russian exports last month have been destined for Egypt, a top transshipment center where ship-to-ship transfers often take place.

The amount of Russian crude reloaded via STS reached 143,400 b/d in February, with a further 147,800 b/d in offshore transfers during March 1-27, according to CAS, and these STS transfers were predominantly carried out in Egyptian waters.

Separately, Russia also in March exported 110,000 b/d of Novy Port grade to Syria in March, the first shipments to the war-torn country since the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham deposed President Bashar Assad in December 2024.

Despite being one of Assad’s key patrons, Russia could use oil as a likely bargaining chip with HTS to retain its naval base in Tartus, according to analysts.

New crude supply from Russia flows could offer a lifeline for Syria’s crude-starved refineries, Banias and Homs, which have been crippled by the loss of Iranian oil.

Product flows

Meanwhile, Russia’s seaborne exports of clean petroleum products marginally fell to 1.57 million b/d in March from 1.64 million b/d in February, while residues and fuel export exports rose to 636,000 b/d from 608,000 b/d.

The frequency of reported Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries reduced in March, as the two sides agreed to the US that they would halt attacks on energy infrastructure for 30 days.

But the Kyiv Independent, citing presidential adviser Dmytro Lytvyn, reported that Ukraine confirmed eight hits against its energy facilities by Russian forces since March 18, when the Kremlin claimed to have ordered a pause on such attacks.

Meanwhile, Russia’s defense ministry said a Ukrainian drone attack on March 18-19 damaged an oil facility in the south of Russia, which supported the transshipment of crude from railway cars to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.

However, CPC distanced itself from such a claim, with a spokesperson saying the targeted facility was not part of the pipeline system.

Source: Platts