Fueleu Maritime: Smarter Compliance Could Unlock A $279 Million Upside For Shipping

As the FuelEU Maritime regulation enters into force, the shipping industry may be looking at a surprising upside. Instead of acting solely as a cost driver, the regulation could create a net financial gain, potentially around USD$279 million (€250 million), according to a recent analysis by maritime data and compliance firm OceanScore.

OceanScore’s analysis focuses on the balance of GHG intensity compliance under FuelEU. The initial compliance deficit across vessels exceeding the regulation’s threshold is estimated at around 2.1 million metric tons (MT) of CO₂e, while more efficient vessels—mainly LNG and LPG carriers—generate a surplus of about 1.3 million MT of CO₂e.

That leaves a net compliance gap of roughly 0.8 million MT, which is likely to be closed using biofuels. These fuels, such as UCOME, have a lower calorific value and higher price point, but offer the advantage of emissions reduction credits and corresponding savings under the EU ETS.

At today’s prices, factoring in the ETS phase-in rate of 70% and current exchange rates, covering this compliance gap via biofuels is expected to cost the industry around USD$223 million (€200 million), or USD$257 (€230) per MT of CO₂e. While that’s not insignificant, it’s a relatively modest figure for an industry of this scale.

The other half of the story is about how emissions-related costs are passed on, especially in container, ferry, and cruise segments, which together make up nearly 50% of total emissions. In many cases, emissions surcharges are now included in COAs, and some are linked to FuelEU’s penalty levels.

OceanScore’s model assumes that just half of operators apply surcharges at two-thirds of the penalty rate, which equates to about USD$715 (€640) per MT of CO₂e. Under these conditions, total additional revenue could reach USD$502 million (€450 million).

Subtracting compliance costs leaves a potential net gain of USD$279 million (€250 million)—although how sustainable that is remains uncertain.

Who benefits from this value shift depends on where you sit in the value chain. Owners, charterers, and ship managers all have different exposure to compliance costs and different leverage in passing them along.

Charterers may aim to pass on more cost than they reimburse, owners will negotiate how these costs are handled, and managers - especially third-party ones - often sit at the center of compliance obligations.

FuelEU doesn’t just introduce a new rule, it’s setting the stage for a compliance credit market. As operators buy and sell surpluses and deficits, pricing, liquidity, and strategy will become real levers for competitiveness.