in Commodity News
13/03/2025
The Donald Trump-led US government is likely to succeed in brokering a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could bring some stability to the oil market, even as the ongoing tariff conflict continues to cast a shadow over global commodity flows, according to prominent investor Jim Rogers.
Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests and co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, told Platts that he strongly believed the worst between Russia and Ukraine was over, and that world commodity and energy markets would start factoring in the possibility of a peace deal sooner rather than later.
“If anybody can help to work out a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, it’s Trump. My view is that things from now on will get less bad on the geopolitical situation there,” Rogers said.
Ukraine is ready to accept an immediate 30-day ceasefire with Russia after talks with the US in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, according to a joint statement by the US and Ukrainian governments published on March 11, promising a potential detente in the conflict that has significantly impacted global commodity markets since 2022.
It added that a ceasefire agreement remains subject to Russian acceptance and implementation, emphasizing that Moscow’s reciprocity remains critical to achieving peace.
“If you look at the recent developments, Trump does not mind doing things differently in Washington. Therefore, there is hope for a peace deal. If you look at the trend, oil is not depressed, although it’s down from its lows. I would rather own oil rather than short it,” Rogers said.
“That said, the ‘drill, baby, drill’ push by the new US government will boost supplies. Trump has always been in favor of more drilling. And once we see more output coming to the market, it could have an impact,” he added.
Price outlook, tariffs
S&P Global Commodity Insights expects 1 million b/d of growth in non-OPEC+ crude and condensate production on average in 2025. As of March 7, the average price of Platts Dated Brent for the year stood at $77 per barrel. For March, the month-to-date price fell to $72 per barrel, down from $75 in February and $79 in January, amid concerns over the global economy and new tariffs by the US — those implemented and incoming – on its trade partners.
Commodity Insights forecasts that global oil and liquids production will outpace demand throughout the year. Consequently, Platts Dated Brent is projected to average $73 per barrel in 2025, lower than the $81 average recorded in 2024, with further declines anticipated in 2026.
Regarding the tariff war that started after Trump resumed his presidency earlier this year, Rogers said it would create a new layer of uncertainty for the markets and potentially affect demand for commodities.
“Tariffs have never been good for most countries — historically, it has never been the case. Other than helping a small group of people, tariffs have created more problems than they have sorted,” he added.
He added that the markets for new commodities, such as lithium, were developing fast and would offer strong opportunities for growth and investment in the medium to long term.
“While lithium and other new markets will offer good scope since supply is l not growing the way demand is looking, commodities like agriculture will continue to offer opportunities as those markets are more depressed than others. I would also still buy gold and silver, although I would look at silver more than gold because it’s cheaper,” Rogers added.
Asian seaborne lithium prices were rangebound in the week ended March 7 amid consistent sluggish demand from downstream. Platts assessed battery-grade lithium carbonate at $9,400/mt March 7, up $200/mt day over day and down $100/mt week over week.
Global slowdown concerns
Commenting on the global market outlook, Rogers said that while he expects US markets to witness a period of turbulence in the foreseeable future, China will stage a revival. This development is taking longer than expected because of the twin woes of a pandemic and a property market crash.
“The US market has witnessed the longest period in history without a problem. We are overdue for a problem. I see signs of inflation rising, interest rates getting higher again,” Rogers said.
According to S&P Global Ratings, the highly uncertain environment poses risks to the global economy this year. US trade policy is a key swing factor that is affecting the outlook. Tariffs are expected to trigger higher inflation in the US and contribute to lower global growth, with smaller and more trade-oriented economies being affected relatively more.
The weaker external environment will weigh on growth in Europe this year, but this will be partly offset by resilient labor markets and potentially supportive fiscal policies. In China, growth will be supported by more expansionary fiscal policy, although stimulus efforts are likely to be moderate. More domestically oriented economies such as India and Japan will be more sheltered from external conditions, according to Ratings.
“I have sold out of most markets. I am sitting on US dollars, and I have not sold out of China. I also believe that India is doing things differently, which is good for its economy. I am more optimistic about India than I have been ever in my entire lifetime,” Rogers said.
Source: Platts