From pv magazine Germany

Germany could install up to 500 GW of agrivoltaic capacity on the most suitable agricultural land, far exceeding its PV expansion target for 2040, according to a new study by Fraunhofer ISE.

The researchers considered all types of agricultural land for the first time and evaluated them using a variety of criteria to identify optimal locations for agrivoltaic systems.

“This is the first study in Germany to consider all types of agricultural land to identify suitable locations, including permanent grassland, arable land, and permanent crops such as fruit, vineyards, or berries,” said researcher Salome Hauger.

Fraunhofer ISE said the criteria catalog included geographical, legal, and regulatory factors to determine technically and legally feasible capacity. The first scenario excluded areas under strict restrictions, such as nature reserves, and identified enough land for 7,900 GW of agrivoltaics. In the second scenario, the team also excluded areas with soft restrictions such as flora and fauna conservation zones, reducing the potential to 5,600 GW.

Regionally, Bavaria showed the highest technical potential, with nearly 3,500 GW deemed feasible. After applying the restrictions from the second scenario, about 2,500 GW remained. The study also found high potential in Lower Saxony and Bremen, while the outlook for agrivoltaics in Saarland was limited. The city-states were grouped with the larger federal states for the analysis.

Based on the general area survey, the researchers applied political, economic, and agricultural suitability criteria in a second round to identify the most favorable locations. The aim was to find areas particularly well suited for agrivoltaics, due to factors such as solar radiation, proximity to a grid connection point, or the presence of permanent crops like wine or fruit that benefit from synergy effects, the researchers said. To support decision-making, the researchers asked experts from agriculture, science, distribution grid operators, and project planning offices to weight the criteria.

As a result, Fraunhofer ISE developed a soil suitability index. This served as the basis for categorizing land into five suitability classes, from most to least favorable.

“An important finding of the study is the role of grid expansion: The lack of grid connection points is a limiting factor for many areas,” said Hauger.

Using geoinformation system-based analyses, the potential for agrivoltaics can be calculated at the individual plot level, with researchers working alongside districts and local distribution grid operators to validate the data.

The “AgriChance” project used this analysis to study the potential in rural areas of the city-state of Hamburg. The researchers created three scenarios to classify the identified areas from a technological and agricultural-economic perspective. They found up to 620 hectares in the Altes Land and the Vier- and Marschlanden regions, where photovoltaics are ideal, especially in combination with permanent crops. The potential for greenhouses is also promising, with 160 hectares of rooftop space able to host nearly 50 MW of solar on existing buildings.

In another study for the districts of Ahrweiler and Breisgau-Hochschwarzwald, the Fraunhofer ISE team considered spatial planning data, grid data, and crop rotations. The results showed significant potential for agrivoltaics in both districts. On the most suitable land alone, agrivoltaic systems could supply 16% and 12% of each district’s current energy consumption, respectively, said the researchers.

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