The Power Interview: Proper Planning Key To Support Electrification

The power generation sector has often looked at the impacts of electrification on demand for power, studying ways to assess the potential impacts of using more electricity to provide energy that otherwise might come from burning fossil fuels.

Several members of the energy community recently provided POWER with their insights on electrification, looking at the challenges for continuing adoption of technologies driving the transition. Among those weighing in was Mark James, interim director at the Institute for Energy and the Environment at Vermont Law and Graduate School. He provided POWER with his take on how electrification impacts many areas of the power sector, from supporting decarbonization goals to adding flexibility to the power grid.

POWER: How important is electrification to reaching decarbonization goals, whether for a municipality, commercial and industrial enterprise, utility, or other enterprise?

James: Electrification is the key that unlocks decarbonization goals and an affordable clean energy transition. Without electrification, thermal (heating and cooling) and transportation GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions will continue to grow.

POWER: How should entities look to accomplish their electrification goals? What technologies (for heating, cooling, etc.) should be embraced?

James: Entities should be planning to electrify existing fossil fuel end uses right now. Commercially available electrification technologies can plug into many existing systems right now and provide operational savings and reduce emissions. Planning to switch is critical because most heating and cooling technologies are replaced on an emergency basis, which leads to technology replacement rather than technology switching. Plans should evaluate future electrical demand to ensure electrical systems can accommodate the new load.

Mark James

Heating, cooling, and hot water are the largest energy uses in buildings. Heat pumps can replace existing technologies at the residential, commercial, and industrial levels without losing performance. Fleet electrification with hybrid or electric vehicles can reduce operational costs, and the diversity of vehicle options is growing. Many electric vehicles have a lower total cost of ownership than conventional gas-powered vehicles and thus can provide long-term savings.

POWER: What should drive electrification? Should it be government policies, economic benefits, environmental benefits, or something else?

James: All of the above. Electrification of thermal and transportation technologies needs assistance to deliver on its economic and environmental potential. The main obstacles are upfront costs, benefits promotion, and workforce education that will install and service the technologies. However, the level or type of assistance will vary depending on where a technology is on its development and deployment curve. Early-stage technologies will need more government support (policies, mandates, incentives) to help them over the hump. Higher upfront costs need to be managed with directed programs that reduce initial costs and educate consumers about the long-term benefits. Later-stage technologies that reach financial parity with fossil fuel uses will need less, but they will still need education for consumers and the contractors installing them.

POWER: In the current political climate, at least in the U.S., should we rely on government policies to push electrification—or should adoption be driven by market forces?

James: Yes, we should continue to use a combination of government policies and market forces. Government policies are essential to creating a marketplace and unleashing demand that drives the efficiencies of economies of scale. As technologies mature, market forces can assume a larger role in pushing electrification. Different electrification technologies are at different states of development and diffusion and as such they require different drivers to speed their adoption. For example, heat pumps (Figure 1) have outsold gas furnaces in the U.S. for the last three years. Electric vehicle sales in the U.S. set a record in 2024 and now comprise more than 8% of new car sales.

1. Heat pumps, touted as an important way to transition to electrification and improve energy efficiency, are becoming more popular, particularly among residential power users. Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy

Government policies should reflect where technologies are on the adoption curve and when market transformation has occurred. Government investment in developing new technologies, like the electrification of industrial uses of fossil fuels, is critical in the initial phases of development. De-risking the development of new technologies is a role that the government has played for decades and has helped America become a leader in research, development, and manufacturing. Investments in electrification technologies do not provide a special advantage, they are simply repeating the pattern that has brought us new technologies.

POWER: How can electrification technologies help utilities manage electricity, and support grid flexibility?

James: Our electrical grid will need more flexibility as it decarbonizes, and electrification technologies are a tool that utilities can deploy to manage electricity supply and demand. The electrification of the thermal and transportation sectors will put new demand on the electrical grid, but it is a demand that can be controlled and managed to maximize the operation of the grid. Many electrification technologies can be controlled and managed without impacting consumer usage. For example, heat pump hot water heaters can turn on in the middle of the day to get ready for the demands of dinner time and baths. By pre-heating the water, the water heaters are off when the air conditioning load is high. More efficient use of the grid reduces the cost of serving customers without compromising the ability to serve customers. Electric vehicles can be charged at night when demand is low, and when there might be surplus electricity from wind farms, which tend to produce more at night. Having more uses for electricity that can be controlled and dispatched gives the utility more options to operate the grid flexibly.

Electrification works in concert with decarbonization and energy efficiency. Electrification takes less energy to deliver the same services as fossil fuel technology. Decarbonization of the electrical grid cuts the emissions of end uses like home heating and cooling. More efficient technology cuts the costs of providing the same service. Together, they can deliver on the promise of a clean and affordable energy transition.

—Darrell Proctor is a senior editor for POWER.