Pv Module Demand In Brazil’S Centralized Generation Market Declining After Reaching 5.1 Gw In 2024

From pv magazine Brazil

Brazil's centralized solar generation market saw demand for PV modules reach 5.1 GWp in 2024, 18% lower volume than in 2023 when demand climbed to 6.2 GWp. The segment's share of imported modules fell to 23% of the total 22.3 GWp of modules that entered the country in 2024, compared to a 35% share of the total 17.5 GW in 2023, according to a new study on centralized generation by São Paulo-based PV research and consultancy company Greener.

The slowdown in imports anticipates effects that have not yet been seen in new installations. After growth in 2024 compared to 2023, with 5.6 GW of plants connected, compared to 4.1 GW the previous year, the implementation of large solar plants is expected to face a decline in 2025. The combination of energy prices close to the floor and worsening curtailment has tended to postpone new investments, bringing caution to the expansion horizon.

Greener found that solar arrays had an average curtailment of 17.1% between April 2024 and March 2025, evidencing significant losses in expected generation, which increases the perception of risk among investors and requires greater attention to the technical feasibility of projects.

These factors increase the perception of risk for investors and slow down the development of projects that have not yet begun, limiting the expansion of centralized generation.

Despite this, the closing of new deals continues. Between March 2024 and February 2025, module manufacturers signed contracts to supply 5.4 GWp for the segment, a volume similar to that mapped by Greener in the previous year, enabling more than BRL 14.5 billion ($2.53 billion) in investments in large solar plants.

The consultancy also mapped 2.4 GWp of solar PPAs and self-production between March 2024 and February 2025, the same volume as the previous year, reaching a cumulative total of 15.8 GWp, with 90% of self-production by equivalence.

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