The trade tariffs introduced by the US administration in 2025 have had a significant impact on Canada’s largest freight rail operators, causing losses of over USD 550 million in the combined revenues of Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC). Although traffic and core revenues have remained relatively stable, the uncertainty generated by US trade policy continues to weigh on the outlook for the North American rail sector.

According to CN management, tariffs, trade volatility, and the lack of predictability in the relationship between Canada and the United States reduced the company’s revenues by more than 350 million USD in 2025.

“Tariffs, trade uncertainty and volatility have impacted our full-year revenues by more than 350 million USD,” said Janet Drysdale, CN’s executive vice president and chief commercial officer, in a presentation to analysts.

CPKC reported a similar impact. The company’s CEO, Keith Creel, estimated that the effects of tariffs and other trade barriers resulted in a loss of approximately 200 million USD, with the final amount potentially even higher.

“We have already absorbed a fairly significant impact due to the uncertainty. We are talking about approximately 200 million USD in lost revenue, maybe even more,” Creel said during a conference call on financial results.

Both CN and CPKC operate extensive networks on both sides of the border between Canada and the United States, making them particularly vulnerable to changes in trade policy.

The situation became more complicated after President Donald Trump returned to the White House, when trade relations between the two countries were marked by the introduction and repeated withdrawal of tariffs throughout 2025.

Although goods covered by the North American trade agreement CUSMA were largely protected from these tariffs, the agreement is set to be renegotiated in July, adding a new level of uncertainty for freight carriers.

“From the beginning, we said that President Trump would try to adjust the trade balance between the three countries,” Creel said. “He will make decisions in the renegotiation that, from his perspective, will benefit the United States.”

For her part, CN CEO Tracy Robinson highlighted the difficulty of anticipating developments in the coming period.

“The outcome of the CUSMA review could influence trade and freight demand in ways that are difficult to predict at this time,” she said. “Our base case scenario is that volumes will remain relatively stable compared to 2025.”

Despite these uncertainties, leaders of both companies insist that trade flows between Canada, the US, and Mexico will continue, even in a more tense environment.

“We’ve been through rough waters. They may get rougher, but ultimately we will weather the storm,” Creel said. “These three nations will continue to trade with each other, and we, thanks to our network, make that possible.”

CPKC has a unique position in the North American market. The company took its current form following the 2021 acquisition of US operator Kansas City Southern by Canadian Pacific in a 31 billion USD deal.

The merger created the only continuous rail network directly linking Canada, the United States, and Mexico, providing a major strategic advantage in a region deeply dependent on cross-border trade.

For the rail sector, the situation in North America highlights how sensitive freight transport is to political and commercial decisions.

Even well-integrated and efficient networks can suffer significant losses when the stability of the commercial framework is called into question, a relevant signal for Europe, where the single market and regulatory predictability are considered key assets for the development of rail freight transport.