The European Union is on track to miss both its 2030 solar and wind capacity targets under current deployment conditions. Under the modeled base-case outcome, solar is modeled at 574 GW against a target of 600 GW, while wind is modeled at 344 GW against a target of 425 GW – a shortfall of 19%, according to a new report from SolarPower Europe.

The analysis compares a business-as-usual base case with a higher-ambition “Solar+” scenario in which solar and battery storage deployment accelerates. In the Solar+ scenario, the European Union reaches 732 GW of solar capacity and 600 GWh of battery storage energy capacity by 2030 – nearly an eightfold increase compared with 77 GWh in 2025. The Solar+ scenario reaches a renewable electricity share of 68%, compared with the European Commission's 69% indicative benchmark.

Under the Solar+ scenario, EU power system operating costs fall by 49% compared with 2025 levels, saving €55 billion annually. Wholesale day-ahead electricity prices drop by 14% on average across selected EU markets to €63.4/MWh. Among the markets assessed, Germany and Poland see the largest day-ahead price declines, of 25% and 16% respectively. Price volatility – measured by four-hour price spreads – falls by 42% across selected markets.

The report addresses the concern that higher solar penetration will undermine project economics through price cannibalization. It finds that pairing solar with battery storage raises PV plus battery energy storage system (BESS) capture prices by 73% on average across selected markets compared with standalone PV capture prices in 2025, with capture rates reaching 84%.

On energy security, the report calculates that PV avoided €27.4 billion in EU gas import costs in 2025. Under the Solar+ scenario, annual savings reach €53.3 billion by 2030, with cumulative savings of €223 billion between 2026 and 2030. The report notes that solar alone had saved the EU €8.5 billion in gas import costs since the start of the Middle East conflict, at the time of publication.

SolarPower Europe calls for an EU Flexibility Strategy with a dedicated Battery Storage Action Plan aligned with the EU's existing 200 GW storage target for 2030, and a coordinated EU Electrification Action Plan. The report identifies structural and regulatory barriers, not technological ones, as the primary obstacles to deployment.

The Solar+ report was written by Raffaele Rossi and colleagues at SolarPower Europe, with modeling by Marius Mordal Bakke, Håkon Sletsjøe, and Fabian Rønningen at Rystad Energy.

The Solar+ findings extend a line of analysis SolarPower Europe has developed as EU solar deployment has accelerated but grid and market constraints have intensified. The European Union installed 65.1 GW of solar in 2025, but grid constraints now put more than 120 GW of renewable capacity at risk across the bloc, underscoring the structural barriers the latest report identifies. European solar manufacturing also remains considerably behind its own industrial targets, adding a supply-chain dimension to the deployment challenge.

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