Iron ore futures finished 2025 with an annual gain, marking a notable turnaround from earlier-year concerns over weak demand. Reuters reported that futures were trading in a relatively tight range but the broader year still closed higher as sentiment and demand proved more resilient than expected.

A key support has been steel exports, which have helped offset softer domestic demand conditions in major consuming markets especially China by keeping mills’ offtake steadier than feared.

While China’s crude steel output in 2025 has been under pressure, Reuters notes iron ore buying has remained comparatively strong, reflecting restocking behavior and expectations of policy support keeping the raw material market firmer than steel fundamentals alone would suggest.

Looking ahead, the iron ore narrative remains closely tied to how steel trade flows evolve in 2026. China has indicated it will continue to control steel output during 2026-2030 and also plans an export licensing system from 2026 for certain steel-related products moves that could reshape export momentum and, in turn, iron ore demand expectations.

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